投资策略周报：地缘扰动下A股的韧性与相对确定性将凸显-20260309

Market Review - The A-share market demonstrated strong resilience amid global market volatility caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which led to a surge in oil prices to around $120 per barrel [2][3] - Major indices in the A-share market generally declined, with the exception of the dividend index, while the "HALO" strategy (heavy assets and low elimination rates) gained traction among investors [1][2] - Sectors benefiting from rising international commodity prices, such as oil and gas, coal, and power equipment, led the market [1][2] Market Outlook - The resilience and relative certainty of the A-share market are expected to stand out amid global pressures, with key factors including China's diversified oil import sources, which mitigate supply shocks compared to Japan and South Korea [2][3] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate index in early March supports market risk appetite, while regulatory measures aim to enhance the stability of the A-share market [2][3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil supply will be critical variables to monitor, particularly the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [2][3] Industry Configuration - Investment recommendations include focusing on cyclical commodities related to price increases, such as oil transportation, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [4] - Attention is also advised on sectors supported by industrial policies, including military industry, storage, AI applications, and commercial aerospace [4] - High-end manufacturing industries related to overseas expansion, such as power equipment and engineering machinery, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]