聚酯产业链：原料供需趋紧地缘局势助推行情

Report Title - Polyester Industry Chain Futures and Options March Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with prices generally showing an upward - trending and volatile pattern [4][107][154] Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the polyester industry chain market followed costs with a downward - then - upward trend, mainly in a volatile consolidation. In early March, the Middle East geopolitical conflict, rising oil prices, expected restrictions on polyester raw material imports, and a decline in domestic production boosted prices to a new high since September 2023 [4] Crude Oil - In February 2026, the US military build - up in the Middle East and military attacks on Iran led to a significant increase in oil prices. In early March, the Brent crude oil futures contract exceeded $90 per barrel [9] - OPEC+ suspended production increases, with a month - on - month decline in crude oil production, while US commercial crude oil inventories increased [11] - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads strengthened, and the US refinery utilization rate decreased but was higher year - on - year. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, global crude oil supply tightened, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with prices expected to remain volatile and strong [14][16] PX - In February 2026, PX prices were first depressed and then rose, hitting a new high in two and a half years. In March, the supply was expected to decrease, and the demand to increase, with a tightening supply - demand situation. The cost was expected to remain strong, and prices were likely to be volatile and strong [20][58] - The cost side, including naphtha, was in a tight supply - demand situation, with prices and crack spreads expected to be strong [24] - There were no new capacity plans for the first half of 2026, and the operating rate was expected to decline from a high level, with processing margins remaining at a relatively high level [25][31] - Demand was expected to increase month - on - month, imports were expected to decrease, and inventories were expected to decline [34][36][40] PTA - In February 2026, PTA prices were driven by costs, first falling and then rising, reaching a new high in two and a half years. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, with continued inventory accumulation, but cost strength would drive price increases [61][107] - Production was expected to increase as the operating rate was expected to rise to around 80%. There were no new capacity plans in 2026 [67][68] - Processing fees were under pressure, exports were expected to decline, and polyester capacity was increasing, with the operating rate expected to seasonally recover [71][78][83] Ethylene Glycol - In February 2026, ethylene glycol prices were under pressure due to high operating rates, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, prices rebounded strongly from the bottom [110] - The operating rate was expected to decline, with no new capacity in March, imports were expected to decrease, and ports were expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking [114][119][124] - Downstream polyester profits were under pressure, and the polyester operating rate was expected to seasonally recover, with an increase in demand for ethylene glycol [128][138] Polyester Staple Fiber - In February 2026, polyester staple fiber prices were first depressed and then rose, driven by costs, reaching a new high since October 2024. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, but demand was relatively weak, and prices were expected to be volatile and strong [157][207] - Production capacity was expected to remain stable in the short term, with an increase in production year - on - year. The operating rate was expected to gradually recover, and processing fees were under pressure [163][166] - Terminal orders were expected to be postponed, textile and clothing exports were expected to be restricted, and inventories were expected to remain stable at around 15 days [169][172][192] Polyester Bottle Chips - In February 2026, polyester bottle chip prices followed costs with a strong - side oscillation, and processing fees were repaired. In March, prices continued to rise, with a tightening supply - demand situation and a decline in inventories [210][246] - The operating rate was expected to remain around 70% and then rise to 80% in the second half of the month. There were no new capacity plans in the short term, and production was expected to increase month - on - month [215][220] - Exports were expected to seasonally increase, domestic demand was expected to gradually recover, and inventories were expected to decline [225][228][230]