铜日报：副产价格上涨推升冶炼利润，铜面临短期供应压力-20260309

Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis Main Contracts and Basis - SHFE main contract price continued to decline, dropping from 101,830 yuan/ton on March 2, 2026, to 101,220 yuan/ton on March 5, 2026; LME price also decreased, falling from 13,027.5 dollars/ton on March 2, 2026, to 12,859 dollars/ton on March 5, 2026 [1][48]. - SMM spot premium/discount showed a narrowing discount, with the premium copper discount narrowing from -90 yuan/ton on March 2, 2026, to -30 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026, indicating a strengthening basis; however, the LME (0 - 3) discount deepened, expanding from -19.03 dollars/ton on March 2, 2026, to -44.56 dollars/ton on March 5, 2026 [1][35]. Position and Trading Volume - LME position decreased by 953 lots to 305,292 lots on March 5, 2026; SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 11,856 tons to 315,488 tons on March 6, 2026 [1][49]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis Supply Side - The Middle - East conflict led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of sulfur supply shortages, which may indirectly affect copper ore leaching costs. The potential production cut of an Indonesian HPAL nickel plant next month may impact African copper mines. Sulfur price increases of 10 - 15% have added to cost pressures [2]. - New projects such as the dispatch of drilling rigs by a copper intelligence company may increase future supply. The cooperation between Chile's Codelco and Microsoft to introduce AI technology is expected to improve mining efficiency [2]. - LME and SHFE inventories have been accumulating, indicating an abundant current supply [2]. Demand Side - The demand recovery is strong. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry on March 5, 2026, increased by 31.14 percentage points to 81.07% compared to the previous period, and the weekly new orders soared by 90.24%, mainly due to the release of home appliance orders and the copper price correction stimulating restocking [2]. - The operating rate of cable enterprises reached 60.90% on March 5, 2026, a 33.17 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. Grid orders entered the concentrated delivery period, and the finished product inventory decreased by 5.7% compared to the previous period [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods was 62.47% and is expected to rise to 70.46% next week, driven by the weakening substitution of recycled copper and downstream restocking [2]. - The scrap copper market is fragmented. The Chinese coefficient strengthened to 97.5%, while South Korea's market adjusted due to high inventories [2]. Inventory Side - Global visible inventories increased overall. LME inventory increased to 315,488 tons on March 6, 2026; SHFE inventory increased to 284,325 tons; COMEX inventory slightly decreased to 599,662 short tons [2][51]. Price Trend Judgment Driving Factors - Supply - side changes: The sulfur supply risk caused by the Middle - East conflict may push up costs, but the current inventory accumulation in LME and SHFE and the progress of new projects alleviate short - term shortage concerns [3]. - Demand - side changes: The demand in the power (grid bidding), construction, and consumer electronics sectors has recovered strongly. The increase in the operating rates of enameled wire and cable industries supports buying [3]. - Macroeconomic sentiment: Geopolitical conflicts bring uncertainties, but the optimistic sentiment dominated by demand prevails [3]. Price Range The copper price is expected to fluctuate in a range of 100,500 - 102,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) in the next one to two weeks, showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [3].