宽松预期短期落空，市场先扬后抑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market entered a window of speculation on monetary easing expectations last week, with interest rates showing a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are strongly supported by relatively loose capital interest rates, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years, and pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [2][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On March 5, the central bank announced a 3 - month (91 - day) 800 billion yuan repurchase operation. With 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchases maturing in March, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan was achieved. As of March 6, the outstanding scale of 3 - month repurchases was 2.7 trillion yuan [5]. - In February, the central bank injected 50 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through open - market treasury bond trading, 50 billion yuan less than in January [7]. - The 2026 economic growth target is set at 4.5% - 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4%. New policy - based financial instruments worth 800 billion yuan will be issued, which is expected to boost fixed - asset investment [8]. - At the economic theme press conference on March 6, relevant departments elaborated on the macro - policy orientation for 2026. The NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank will work together to amplify the "combination punch" effect of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From March 2 to March 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting 161.6 billion yuan in total, with 1.525 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. It is expected that 427.6 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from March 9 to March 13 [14]. - Despite the large - scale withdrawal of base currency by the central bank through short - term reverse repurchases at the beginning of March, the capital market remained generally loose. DR001 was below 1.3% for three days during the week. As of March 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.388%, 1.492%, 1.319%, and 1.415% respectively, with changes of 4.78BP, - 1.54BP, 0.05BP, and - 8.85BP compared to March 2 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 717.2 billion yuan, an increase of 263.25 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 587.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 78.77 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing scale of 129.21 billion yuan, an increase of 342.02 billion yuan from the previous week [22]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank CDs decreased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year inter - bank CDs of state - owned banks decreased by 4.13BP and 1.42BP respectively; those of joint - stock banks decreased by 2.93BP and 2.19BP respectively [28]. - In the secondary market, most - term inter - bank CDs showed a downward trend supported by relatively loose liquidity [29]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance total of 606.484 billion yuan, a maturity total of 488.205 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 118.279 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of treasury bonds and local bonds in the first week of March was slightly behind the same period [31]. - As of March 6, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2026 was about 0.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 2.02 trillion yuan, both higher than the average of the same period from 2022 - 2025 [32]. - The net supply of local bonds increased last week. Among them, 4 treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 1 billion yuan; 30 local bonds were issued, with a net financing of 256.229 billion yuan; 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 136.95 billion yuan [40]. - As of last week, 0.8 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds had been issued, with long - term and ultra - long - term bonds accounting for about 92.32%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales included Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Henan [43]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Last week, long - term bonds showed a volatile trend in the speculation of monetary easing expectations during the Two Sessions, and the yield curve steepened. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds remained above 9%, and their investment value gradually became prominent [32]. - The turnover rates of the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) increased last week. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250022) was 21.677 billion yuan, an increase of about 38.66% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 4.91%, an increase of about 1.53 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year CDB bond (250220) was 352.135 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.82% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 96.88%, an increase of about 55.67 percentage points [46]. - The average spread between the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the second - active bond (250016) was - 0.04BP; the average spread between the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) and the second - active bond (250215) widened compared to the previous week [48]. - The 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread reached 49.52BP, and the 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread widened to 99.54BP. The term spread may still widen [54]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed last week, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of March 6, the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the 10 - year treasury bond was 19.90BP, narrowing by 2.57BP from the previous week; the spread between the 30 - year local bond and the 30 - year treasury bond was 20.88BP, widening by 0.14BP from the previous week [57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leverage trading was generally at a high level. In the cash market, large banks strengthened their selling efforts, with an increased preference for holding treasury bonds within 5 years. Small and medium - sized banks continued to take profits on treasury bonds within 10 years. Insurance companies increased their buying efforts. Securities firms continued to net - buy treasury bonds between 5 - 10 years and tried to increase their positions in policy - financial bonds between 5 - 10 years. Funds still preferred policy - financial bonds [63][73]. - In January 2026, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.30%, a decrease of about 0.07 percentage points from December 2025. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in January 2026 were about 111.11%, 191.81%, and 132.51% respectively [63]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week. The average daily leverage trading volume was about 8.64 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 5.97% week - on - week; the settlement price of wire rod futures decreased by 5.71% week - on - week; the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 2.04% week - on - week; the cement price index decreased by 0.37% week - on - week; the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 2.02% week - on - week [88]. - The CCFI index decreased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.75% week - on - week [88]. - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.53% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 5.02% week - on - week [88]. - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.41% and 1.78% respectively week - on - week [88]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 6.92 [88]. 3.6 Outlook for the Future - The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are supported by loose capital, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years. Pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [90].