利率债周报：上周长债震荡上行，收益率曲线转而陡峭化-20260309

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, long - term bonds fluctuated upwards, and the yield curve became steeper. The bond market was strong in the first half of the week due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict, stock market volatility, loose liquidity at the beginning of the month, and weak PMI data in February. However, it weakened in the second half due to the government work report, profit - taking, stock market rebound, and unfulfilled expectations of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts [3]. - This week, the bond market will remain in a volatile pattern, and the yield curve is expected to continue to be steep. Inflation concerns may increase, but the impact of inflation expectations on the bond market may be limited. Long - term bond yields are likely to remain weakly volatile, while short - term yields will be supported by loose liquidity [3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Last Week's Bond Market Review - Secondary Market: The bond market was overall volatile and slightly stronger last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.13%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.57bp compared to the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3.10bp. The term spread widened significantly. The daily performance of the bond market varied due to different factors each day [4][5]. - Primary Market: 60 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 14 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 606.5 billion yuan, 180.9 billion yuan less than the previous week, and the net financing was 117.3 billion yuan, 261 billion yuan less than the previous week. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples for Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds were 4.06, 4.64, and 19.75 times respectively [15][16]. b. Last Week's Important Events - The manufacturing PMI in February decreased to 49.0%, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday. The service PMI rose to 49.7%, in line with seasonal patterns. The real - estate industry's business activity index was low, indicating possible policy support in the future [18]. - The government work report set the GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, the fiscal deficit rate at about 4%, planned to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds. The monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [18]. c. Real Economy Observation - On the production side, the blast furnace operating rate and daily hot - metal output declined, while the asphalt plant operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased. On the demand side, the BDI index slightly decreased, and the CCFI index slightly increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose, with oil and rebar prices increasing and copper prices falling [21]. d. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 156.34 billion yuan last week. The R007 and DR007 rates declined. The inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks continued to fall, and the national - share direct discount rates of all tenors decreased. The volume of pledged repurchase transactions increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio first increased and then decreased, with an overall significant increase [33][34][35].