Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-09 09:06Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall view of the report is to conduct light - position range - bound trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks for aluminum - related products, including alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloys. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 24,950 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,905 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 3,431 US dollars/ton, up 138.5 US dollars [2]. - Contract Spreads: The main - second - continuous contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; that of alumina is - 55 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum is 219,433 hands, down 6,217 hands; that of alumina is 303,982 hands, up 668 hands [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventory is 456,875 tons, down 2,250 tons; the total inventory of alumina is 402,768 tons, up 18,073 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 25,200 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,615 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,330 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 250 yuan/ton, up 515 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 290 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: Alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1% [2]. - Demand and Balance: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - Imports and Exports: The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export quantity of alumina is 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import quantity of alumina is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The production of electrolytic aluminum is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,540.20 million tons, with the start - up rate at 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. - Imports and Exports: The import quantity of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 54 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 66.49 million tons, down 1.91 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. - Index: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 35.13%, down 2.81%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 34.01%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum is 26.56%, down 0.0340 [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.86, down 0.0721 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Automobile Price Cut: In February, the average price cut of new new - energy vehicles was 4.8 million yuan, with a cut rate of 13.5%; the average price cut of new conventional fuel vehicles was 4.6 million yuan, with a cut rate of 12.5% [2]. - Monetary Policy: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - GDP and Investment: It is expected that this year's GDP increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan, and a national - level merger and acquisition fund will be established to guide and leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [2]. - Fiscal Policy: This year, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, with the expenditure total exceeding 30 trillion yuan, the new government bond scale reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central transfer payment to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2]. 3.8 Alumina View - Fundamentals: The alumina main contract fluctuates. The supply is high and sufficient, and the demand is increasing steadily. The raw material price may be supported, and the overall situation is a stage of increasing supply and demand [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuates. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand will gradually emerge. The profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is expanding, but the short - term price increase may affect downstream consumption. The overall situation is a stage of increasing supply and demand, and the aluminum ingot inventory is seasonally accumulating [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2]. - Option Market: The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.86, down 0.0721, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View - Fundamentals: The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also increasing. The cost supports the price, and the inventory is being depleted [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2].