瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. With high capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, post - holiday downstream demand is gradually picking up, leading to a significant increase in the negotiation focus and trading volume. Production enterprise inventories have decreased significantly, while trade enterprise inventories have increased slightly. It is expected that spot - end inventories will continue to decline significantly in late March due to some plant overhauls. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, but the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization. Given the high uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and its downstream products are highly volatile, and short - term synthetic rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 15,835 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,075 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 34,579, with a week - on - week decrease of 392. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 19,630 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 14,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 14,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 14,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 14,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 165 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 625 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 92.69 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 7.28 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 774.38 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.12 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 910 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,500 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 90.9 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 9.89 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.28%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.89 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 81.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,750 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 9,020 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. Most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [2] 3.5 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 18.80% [2]