First Shanghai Securities·2026-03-09 09:15Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Exchange (388) - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange achieved revenue and other income of HKD 29.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%[6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 17.75 billion, up 36% year-on-year[6] - The EBITDA was HKD 22.8 billion, reflecting a 40% increase year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, up 5 percentage points[6] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market reached HKD 249.8 billion, a 90% increase year-on-year, with southbound trading averaging HKD 121.1 billion, up 151%[7] - The total amount raised from new IPOs was HKD 286.9 billion, a 226% increase year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in recent years[10] Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The target price for Hong Kong Stock Exchange is adjusted to HKD 500, representing a 23% upside from the previous closing price[11] - The expected EPS for 2026 is HKD 14.1, with a compound annual growth rate of mid-to-high levels over the next three years[11] - The current price corresponds to a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 28-29 times, which is above historical averages but below some international peers[11] - Risks include high sensitivity of short-term trading volume to policy and macroeconomic conditions, as well as regulatory uncertainties[12] Group 3: Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue increased by 42.6% to USD 19.29 billion, driven primarily by the growth of tirzepatide[19] - The net profit for Q4 was USD 6.64 billion, a 50.5% year-on-year increase, with EPS rising 51.4% to USD 7.39[19] - The company expects revenue growth of 23%-27% in 2026, reaching USD 80-83 billion, with EPS projected to increase by 46%-53% to USD 33.5-35.0[19] - The target price for Eli Lilly is set at USD 1,184, indicating a 20.4% upside from the current price[21]