瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed meal futures continued to rise supported by the strong US soybean market, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently, it is the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid [2]. - The price of rapeseed oil futures continued to rise significantly driven by the international oil price increase and the expectation of biodiesel demand. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the import volume in the far - month, but the market has already expected this, so the impact on the price is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9954 yuan/ton, up 288 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2433 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active contract) was 729.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 10.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 6056 yuan/ton, up 222 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 122 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 19239 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 273150 lots, and rapeseed meal was 746843 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 6544 lots, down 607 lots; rapeseed meal was - 130978 lots, up 42003 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 725 sheets, and rapeseed meal was 1411 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10810 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10835 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5453.78 yuan/ton, up 75.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 856 yuan/ton, up 272 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 9240 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9830 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3270 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - Spot price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 580 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: Forecast annual production was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.5 million tons [2]. - Oil mill inventories: Rapeseed was 20 million tons, up 12.5 million tons [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 8%, up 4.8% [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 57 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal was 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons; East China rapeseed oil was 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal was 9.29 million tons, up 0.85 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal was 1.5 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly production was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons [2]. - Consumption in the catering industry: Monthly social consumer retail sales of catering was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly production was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.88%, up 1.79% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.85%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 15.99%, up 0.68%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 16.18%, up 0.82%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 19.63%, up 2.38%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 19.48%, up 0.93% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On March 6 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher and recorded weekly gains, boosted by the rising soybean oil price. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 10.90 Canadian dollars to 730.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There is a strong expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market's outlook for US soybean demand remains uncertain. However, due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the US soybean market to rise [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - The operating rate of rapeseed and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday [2]