地方债周报：地方债二级利差收窄-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, including primary and secondary market conditions, such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates. It also provides information on the issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026 and the next week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 272.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 255.2 billion yuan, a net increase of 64.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance included 4.8 billion yuan in new general bonds, 78.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, 54.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 135.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - Issuance Terms: The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (28%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 93%, a decrease compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 7%, 23%, 28%, 15%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 25 percentage points [1][13]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 112.6 billion yuan were issued. As of the end of this week, 28 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 804.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds in 2026, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang had relatively large issuance volumes, with 80 billion yuan, 57.3 billion yuan, and 56.4 billion yuan respectively. This week, 5.6 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 118 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 15.1 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [2][16][20]. - Issuance Spreads: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.2bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.5bp. The issuance spreads of 7 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Fujian, and Hebei had relatively high local government bond issuance spreads this week, at 23.8bp, 20.5bp, and 19.3bp respectively [2][25]. - Fund - Raising Allocations: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of the funds raised by new special bonds in 2026 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (34%), transportation infrastructure (17%), affordable housing projects (14%), social undertakings (11%), and agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy (8%) [2][28]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance volumes in January and February, the total disclosed issuance volume for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 936.2 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance volumes of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter are 1387.6 billion yuan and 1570.1 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 135.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 70.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 64.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 190.6 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance includes 19.4 billion yuan in new general bonds, 17.7 billion yuan in new special bonds, 55.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 43.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3][31][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had a relatively high secondary spread. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds whose secondary spreads widened, the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spread of 10 - year local government bonds reached 14.4bp. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the historical quantile of the 7 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, at 59%. Regionally, the 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads, exceeding 12bp [4][5][35]. - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds in Ningxia had a relatively high turnover rate. This week, the trading volume of local government bonds reached 632.1 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.12%. Among them, the trading volume of local government bonds in Guangdong was large, reaching 85.5 billion yuan; the turnover rate of local government bonds in Ningxia was relatively high, reaching 5.7% [5][39].