钢材：短期震荡偏强，关注宏观情绪

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market prices remained stable overall. On the supply side, although the output of rebar increased slightly week - on - week, it was still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, with limited supply pressure. On the demand side, with the resumption of work after the holiday, the apparent consumption increased significantly, but the absolute level was still low. The inventory was accumulating, but the growth rate slowed down, and the year - on - year increase was only 3%, so the overall inventory pressure was still within the controllable range. During the Two Sessions this week, the window period of macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported the prices of finished products. Although the post - holiday demand had some resilience, it was difficult to have a remarkable performance. There was still room for the resumption of production of blast furnaces and electric furnaces in the later stage. It was expected that the demand recovery speed would be slower than the supply recovery speed, and inventory pressure would still exist. With limited fundamental support, there was still pressure for a high - level correction after the futures market rally [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The steel market prices were stable this week. Rebar output increased week - on - week but was at a five - year low in the same period. Demand recovered after the holiday but remained at a low absolute level. Inventory was growing but at a slower pace, with a 3% year - on - year increase. During the Two Sessions, macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported prices. Demand was resilient but not outstanding, and there was room for production resumption. Demand recovery was expected to be slower than supply, and inventory pressure would persist. The futures market might face a high - level correction [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The average daily hot metal output of steel mills was 227.59 million tons, a decrease of 5.69 million tons (-2.44%) from the previous week. Rebar mill inventory was 237.93 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons (2.19%). Rebar social inventory was 637.75 million tons, an increase of 69.99 million tons (12.33%). Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons (-4.96%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (6.78%) [3]. Futures Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, futures market coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [4][5][10]. Spot Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes graphs such as the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24].