生猪期货：近弱远强、底部支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the week of March 2 - 8, 2026, the national average price of foreign three - yuan pigs was 10.43 yuan/kg, showing a slight weekly decline; prices in many areas broke through the psychological threshold of 5 yuan/jin, with a pig - grain ratio of 4.45:1, indicating deep industry losses. The futures market fluctuated weakly within a narrow range. Starting at 11390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and ending at 11160 yuan/ton at the weekend, it dropped 230 yuan/ton for the week, with a trading range of 11080 - 11400 yuan/ton. The position steadily expanded, trading volume was moderate, and the long - short game converged. LH05 is expected to fluctuate weakly, bottom out at a low level, with little chance of a significant rebound, and may test the support around 11000 yuan/ton. Currently, the live hog contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, accelerating the bottom - building process [1] - Factors to watch include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The average price of foreign three - yuan pigs last week was 10.43 yuan/kg, with a slight weekly decline. Many areas broke through the 5 - yuan/jin psychological threshold, and the pig - grain ratio was 4.45:1, indicating deep industry losses. The futures market fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, dropping 230 yuan/ton for the week. LH05 is expected to fluctuate weakly and bottom out at a low level, with a possible test of the 11000 - yuan/ton support. The live hog contracts show a near - term weakness and long - term strength pattern, accelerating the bottom - building process [1] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 339.29 | 356.19 | - 16.9 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.17 | 123.06 | 0.11 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 87.42 | - 34 | - 53.42 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 176.34 | - 97.76 | - 78.58 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 27.88 | 28.12 | - 0.24 | Weekly | [3] Periodic and Spot Market Review - No specific content summary provided, only a reference to the main contract basis chart [5] Supply Situation Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts such as the monthly trend of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises and the weekly trend of the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs [9][10] Demand Situation Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts such as the start - up rate of key slaughtering enterprises and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises [16][17] Cost - Profit Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts of the profit from purchasing piglets and the profit from self - breeding and self - raising [20]