国债期货：震荡收敛，等待政策指引

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The "Government Work Report" sets this year's main economic growth target at 4.5%-5%, with an effort to achieve better results in practice, a target urban survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, and a target consumer price inflation of around 2%. Global investors are closely watching the Middle East situation. The suspension of oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified oil price fluctuations, leading to various uncontrollable factors in commodity price fluctuations this year and triggering inflation expectations. However, as domestic inflation is currently at a low level, imported inflation is unlikely to trigger expectations of monetary policy adjustment. During the Two Sessions, there were few policy increments, so the bond and stock markets are likely to fluctuate. The triangular consolidation pattern of the bond market remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in April to see if it can provide directional guidance and an opportunity for the bond market to break out of the consolidation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in Beijing on March 5, and Premier Li Qiang delivered the "Government Work Report". Global investors are concerned about the Middle East situation, especially the oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. The suspension of oil transportation there has affected oil prices and commodity markets. There were few policy increments during the Two Sessions, and the bond and stock markets are likely to fluctuate. The bond market's triangular consolidation pattern remains, and the April Politburo meeting may provide direction [2] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Factors to watch include the stock-bond seesaw, capital market disturbances, and economic data [3] 3.3 Market Data - The report presents various data charts including long - and ultra - long - term treasury bond futures prices, short - and medium - term treasury bond futures prices, trading volumes and open interests of short - and medium - term and long - and ultra - long - term treasury bond futures, official PMI, GDP and industrial added value, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, general public budget, M2 and new RMB loans, inflation data, import and export data, central bank open market operations, M2 and social financing gap, interbank certificate of deposit issuance rates, interest rate swaps and capital expectations, benchmark interest rates, and capital costs, with data sources from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [4][5][9][15]