碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场宽幅震荡，供应压力与成本支撑博弈加剧-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market experienced a transition from a sharp decline to wide - range fluctuations this week. The driving factors are the short - term supply growth expectations (production and imports) and the reversal of capital sentiment, which outweigh the long - term supply gap and low - inventory positive logic. The current market is in a stage of intense long - short game, with the core contradiction being the confrontation between short - term supply pressure and cost support and bargain - hunting demand. After the sharp decline, the price is supported near the cost line and enters a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with the core operating range between 146,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Price Changes: The price of lithium carbonate futures decreased by 11.29% from 176,040 yuan/ton to 156,160 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 11.09% to 154,800 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 11.52% to 151,750 yuan/ton; the price of coarse - grained electric - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 8.90% to 148,500 yuan/ton; the price of fine - powder electric - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 8.62% to 153,700 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 9.19% to 143,200 yuan/ton [5] - Premium and Discount: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises remained unchanged this week [8] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - China's Lithium Carbonate Production: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate decreased by 14.3% to 73.46%, but the weekly output increased, and the import of lithium sulfate is expected to grow in March, increasing supply elasticity [3] - Output by Region and Raw Material Source: Not detailed in the provided content - China's Lithium Hydroxide Production: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Demand - Mid - and Down - stream Consumption: Downstream energy storage demand remains high, but new - energy vehicle sales data is weak. The resilience of the demand side is reflected in the strong willingness to buy on dips, which provides certain support for prices [3] 3.2.3 Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import: The market is concerned about the long - term impact of Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium ore exports, but the import volume in March is expected to increase, and supply pressure still exists [3] - Lithium Ore Transportation: The transportation costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged this week [29] - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export: Not detailed in the provided content - Seasonal Changes: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.4 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory: Not detailed in the provided content - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 2,131 to 36,330, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5.54% [42] 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate: The production cost decreased with the decline of raw material prices, and the cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased by 10.19%. The industry profit is still negative, with the profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate production at - 8,918.5 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for prices [3] 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis - Positive Electrode Material: Information on market conditions, supply, demand, and cost - profit is not detailed in the provided content - Electrolyte: Information on price and output is not detailed in the provided content - Lithium - Battery Material and Battery Import and Export: Information is not detailed in the provided content - Lithium - Battery Recycling: Information is not detailed in the provided content - New - Energy Vehicle: Information on production, sales, and other important data is not detailed in the provided content