中东冲突延续，金银高位调整

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US February non - farm payroll data showed a decrease of 92,000 people, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating signs of an economic slowdown. The ongoing Middle - East conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, increasing market inflation expectations in the US, and the Fed's interest rate cut faced challenges. The precious metals were under pressure and declined. The medium - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but it is in a short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the return of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - In the short term, there is limited fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the guidance of gold prices. Platinum and palladium should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Gold: London gold decreased from $5,222.3/oz to $5,127.55/oz; COMEX gold decreased from $5,296.4/oz to $5,181.3/oz; the difference between London gold and COMEX gold increased by $20.35/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Au(T + D) and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold also decreased. COMEX inventory decreased by 239,257 ounces, and COMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 201,242 ounces. The COMEX gold - silver ratio and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold - silver ratio increased [8]. - Silver: London silver decreased from $89.975/oz to $82.34/oz; COMEX silver decreased from $94.425/oz to $84.75/oz; the difference between London silver and COMEX silver increased by $2.04/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased. COMEX inventory decreased by 11,186,608 ounces, and COMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 6,689,997 ounces. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 50,644 kilograms [8]. - Platinum: London platinum decreased from $2,366/oz to $2,109/oz; NYMEX platinum decreased from $2,376.2/oz to $2,151.8/oz; the difference between London platinum and NYMEX platinum increased by $32.6/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Pt9995 and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum decreased. NYMEX inventory decreased by 2,622 ounces, and NYMEX warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - Palladium: London palladium decreased from $1,793/oz to $1,626/oz; NYMEX palladium decreased from $1,828/oz to $1,657/oz; the difference between London palladium and NYMEX palladium increased by $4/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Pt9995 and Guangzhou Futures Exchange palladium decreased. NYMEX inventory increased by 2,917 ounces, and NYMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 1,951 ounces [8]. 02. Market Analysis - Market News - On March 7, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control conditionally relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's gold - related transactions [10]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, with 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons) at the end of February, an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from January [10]. - Due to the Middle - East conflict, Dubai gold was sold at a large discount, and many buyers stopped placing new orders [10]. - In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion, with the total asset management scale reaching a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reaching 4,171 tons [10]. - In 2025, platinum industrial demand decreased by 21% to 60 tons, but is expected to rebound by 11% to 66 tons in 2026. Total investment demand in 2025 increased by 65% to 36 tons but is expected to decrease by 46% to 19 tons in 2026. The physical investment demand for platinum bars and coins is expected to increase by 35% to 23 tons in 2026 [11]. - In 2025, platinum demand in the automotive catalyst field decreased by 2 tons to 94 tons, and is expected to further decrease by 3% to 92 tons in 2026 [11]. - The global platinum market will have a supply shortage of 240,000 troy ounces in 2026, narrowing from 1.1 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is expected to decrease by 8% to 7.6 million ounces, and total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 7.4 million ounces [11]. - The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 people, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates at least once in 2026, possibly in June [11].