钢材&铁矿石日报：商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, but the industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the fundamentals are still weak. Supported by cost and positive commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.58%. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has declined, but inventory remains high, and supply pressure persists. Demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and prices continue to face pressure. Positive commodity sentiment is expected to keep hot-rolled coil prices in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly, with a daily increase of 2.28%. Driven by short-term factors such as rising transportation costs and structural contradictions in varieties, iron ore prices have trended higher. However, iron ore demand has weakened again, and supply is increasing. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward momentum is limited. A cautious and optimistic outlook for future trends is recommended, with attention on steel performance [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously [7]. - In February, China's shipbuilding industry led the global market with an 80% market share in new ship orders. Global new ship orders totaled 163 vessels (5.21 million CGT), a 15% increase year-on-year. Chinese shipyards received orders for 131 vessels (4.15 million CGT), ranking first globally, and achieving the highest market share since August 2024 [8]. - As of March 6, 38 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance of the ultimate energy efficiency benchmark, including Hanbao Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. of Handan Iron and Steel Group and Yongfeng Lingang Co., Ltd. of Shandong Iron and Steel Group [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,324 respectively, with daily changes of 30, 30, and 24 [10]. - Hot-rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,180, and 3,287 respectively, with daily changes of 30, 40, and 22 [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,930, with no daily change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,160, with no daily change [10]. - Iron ore: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 770, with a daily increase of 5. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767, with a daily increase of 5. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 10.30 and 25.65 respectively, with daily changes of -0.73 and -0.41. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.20, with a daily increase of 1.19. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.65, with a daily increase of 1.30 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,119, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The trading volume was 1,576,431, with an increase of 872,128. The open interest was 1,740,832, with a decrease of 57,900 [14]. - Hot-rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,270, with a daily increase of 1.58%. The trading volume was 784,875, with an increase of 444,546. The open interest was 1,292,623, with a decrease of 106,185 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 784.5, with a daily increase of 2.28%. The trading volume was 411,614, with an increase of 146,950. The open interest was 473,257, with a decrease of 14,997 [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social warehouses [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: The report includes charts on the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [24][25][28]. - Steel mill production: The report shows charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills [32][34][39]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both increased. The production of short-process steel mills has resumed, leading to an increase in production. However, demand is still at a relatively low level, and the policy has not exceeded expectations. The fundamentals remain weak, and prices continue to face pressure. Supported by cost and positive commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but inventory remains high, and supply pressure persists. Demand has also weakened, and the resilience of demand is expected to decline. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, and prices continue to face pressure. Positive commodity sentiment is expected to keep hot-rolled coil prices in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to demand changes [40]. - Iron ore: Demand has weakened again due to environmental restrictions and poor profitability of steel mills. Supply is increasing, with a significant increase in domestic port arrivals and a recovery in domestic mine production. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward momentum is limited. A cautious and optimistic outlook for future trends is recommended, with attention on steel performance [41].