鸡蛋周报2026-03-09：外围情绪影响偏强，基本面不支持大涨-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals do not support a significant increase in the egg market, and external sentiment has a strong influence. The overall supply pressure still exists, but the supply - demand situation is gradually improving. Futures prices are difficult to rise significantly and are mainly for basis repair. [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - Spot prices are mainly stable, in line with expectations; futures are short - term stable and slightly stronger, outperforming spot prices. The basis continues to be weak, but there is an obvious trend of strengthening in the future, with spot prices supporting the futures rebound. [5][8] 2. Spot Market Review - The inventory in the production areas is high, mainly for destocking; the inventory in the external sales is low, and a new round of restocking has begun; the overall prices in the production areas are relatively strong after the festival. [13] 3. Newly Added Stocking - In the first quarter of 2026, the new - added pressure is not large. The utilization rate of hatching eggs is stable and rising at a low level, and the price of chicks has increased significantly, with stocking better than expected. The new - added quantity from November 2025 to April 2026 corresponding to July - December 2025 has decreased year - on - year and has no obvious month - on - month increase. [18][20] 4. Culling - The price of culled chickens has increased, the culling age has slowed down, and the culling has slowed down. The current mainstream culling age is 480 - 490 days, with a cullable quantity of about 100 million. The main contradiction lies in the 350 - 450 - day - old chickens, with a quantity of about 220 million. Profit and loss situation: Profits were made from January to February and briefly in September, with an average of - 0.34 yuan per catty from January to October, and overall no profit. There is a consideration of culling or waiting until the Spring Festival for molting. [21][27] 5. Demand - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and consumption is slowly recovering. The production areas have high inventory pressure and are actively shipping, and the temperature is suitable for storage. The sales areas have little inventory pressure, and restocking has gradually started. Vegetable prices have fallen due to unstable temperatures, suppressing egg prices, and pork prices are at a low level, also having an obvious suppressing effect on eggs. [36][39] 6. Cost and Profit - The prices of soybean meal and corn continue to strengthen, and the raw material cost is rising steadily. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty. Recently, as the cost side has rebounded and the egg spot price has been stable, the profit has weakened again, and the culling has slowed down. [42] 7. Position and Spread - The position has fallen from a high level, the capital attention has decreased, and short - term contradictions are not obvious. In the short term, the spot price supports the spread to strengthen, but from a cyclical perspective, the spread should continue to be in a reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term. [48][52]