银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260309

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report on eggs, dated March 9, 2026, written by researcher Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3677, up 39 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3427, up 38; JD09 closed at 3852, up 23. The 01 - 05 spread was 250, up 1; the 05 - 09 spread was -425, up 15; the 09 - 01 spread was 175, down 16 [2] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, up 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, up 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.01. The 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.14, down 0.02; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.26, down 0.01 [2] Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main sales areas, it was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2] - The profit per feather of egg - laying chickens was 2.70 yuan, up 4.53 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2433 yuan, up 15 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3172 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.65 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In February, the nationwide inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [4] - From March 5th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5][8] - As of March 5th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/feather from the previous week [5] - As of March 5th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; in the circulation link, it was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7] Group 4: Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has eased, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]