棉花、棉纱日报-20260309

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is supported by fundamentals. With the increase in crude oil prices, US cotton has been rising. In China, due to the expected "Golden March and Silver April" in the demand - side and the fast sales progress of cotton, the market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The global cotton supply is expected to be relatively tight, and if consumption increases, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zheng cotton, and avoid chasing high prices. For US cotton, it is likely to fluctuate in a range in the short - term [5][6]. - The cotton yarn market shows signs of recovery. The trading of combed medium - and high - count yarns is good, while that of low - count yarns is relatively weak. The inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, and the loom rate of fabric mills has increased [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased, while CY05 and CY09 contracts increased. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. The spot prices of CCIndex3128B and CY IndexC32S increased, and there were also changes in other spot prices. There were fluctuations in various spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 100.5% of the annual estimated output, with a 4% year - on - year decline. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4% and Pima cotton was 103.8%, both with year - on - year declines. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the previous year. The expected final inspection volume is about 3.05 million tons [4]. - As of March 3, 2026, the net long rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 22.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 percentage points [4]. - As of March 5, the inventory of ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts was 128,504 bales, down from the previous trading day [4]. Trading Logic - Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, US cotton has been rising. In China, with the start of downstream production, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is fast. The global cotton supply is expected to be tight, and if consumption increases, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved. It is expected that cotton will be strong in the short - term [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, and Zheng cotton shows strong technical performance. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has recovered. Combed medium - and high - count yarns are in good demand, while low - count yarns and air - spun yarns are relatively weak. The inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, and the loom rate of fabric mills has increased. The loom rate index is 51.3%, and the average inventory days of fabric mills are about 33.4 days [9]. Third Part: Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF605 - C - 14600, CF605 - C - 14200, and CF605 - P - 13800 are 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively. The PCR of the main contract of Zheng cotton shows that the trading volume of both call and put options has decreased. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [11][12][13]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the price differences between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in different months, and the price differences between cotton yarn and cotton contracts in different months [14][15][16]