玉米淀粉日报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and the rise in crude oil has driven up the price of corn. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn remains low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, as does the price of Northeast corn, with the purchase price of northern ports being strong today. The price of North China wheat continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers are selling more grain in March, so the upside potential of the spot price of Northeast corn is expected to be limited, as is the upside potential of the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of Shandong corn is strong, and the price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. Currently, the price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary of Each Section Part 1: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2368, 2395, and 2416 respectively, with price increases of 17, 2, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.72%, 0.08%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 6,857, 1,545,357, and 103,172 respectively, with increase rates of 115.97%, 95.41%, and 121.04%. The open interests of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 9,246, 1,435,081, and 123,072 respectively, with change rates of 29.97%, - 5.56%, and 0.79% [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2707, 2716, and 2727 respectively, with price increases of 12, 5, and - 5, and price increase rates of 0.44%, 0.18%, and - 0.18%. The trading volumes of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 82, 130,647, and 7,064 respectively, with increase rates of 26.15%, 64.97%, and 80.07%. The open interests of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 135, 261,060, and 16,077 respectively, with change rates of 0.00%, - 1.74%, and - 2.37% [2]. Spot Market and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2210, 2260, 2440, 2400, 2400, 2530, and 2530 respectively. The price changes are 20, 0, 0, 0, 5, 30, and 10 respectively. The basis values are - 206, - 156, 24, - 16, 5, 114, and 114 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2830, 2700, 2750, 2950, 2960, 2990, and 2900 respectively. The price changes are 50, 0, 0, 0, 20, 20, and 0 respectively. The basis values are 114, - 16, 34, 234, 244, 274, and 184 respectively [2]. Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 27 with a change of 15, C05 - C09 is - 21 with a change of - 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 13. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 9 with a change of 7, CS05 - CS09 is - 11 with a change of 10, and CS09 - CS01 is 20 with a change of - 17. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 311 with a change of - 9, CS01 - C01 is 339 with a change of - 5, and CS05 - C05 is 321 with a change of 3 [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis Corn - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, US corn prices have risen, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2325 yuan. The closing prices at northern ports are strong, around 2400 yuan, and the spot prices in Northeast corn - producing areas continue to rise. The deep - processing operating rate has increased, and the supply of corn has increased on weekends. The spot price of corn continues to rise, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat and corn auctions continue. The price of North China wheat is relatively strong, around 2550 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. However, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, and the upside potential of the 05 corn contract is expected to be limited [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2920 yuan, and the spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week to 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase rate of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease rate of 11.4%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The 05 US corn has support at 440 cents per bushel. For the 05 corn contract, go short on short - term rallies with a light position and set a stop - loss. - Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the spread is low [9][10]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Diagrams - The report provides six diagrams, showing the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn contracts, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn starch contracts, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the price spread between the 05 corn starch and corn contracts [14][15][19].