铁合金日报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 9th, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5868, with a 0.00% increase and a decrease of 24,798 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 6132, with a 0.03% increase and a decrease of 37,804 in positions [5]. - For silicon - iron, on the 9th, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, rising by 150 - 320 yuan/ton in some regions. Supply - side sample enterprise operating rates and output decreased slightly, but recent price increases have led to profit recovery, and some supply has started to resume production. Steel output is increasing steadily, and it is expected to continue to climb slowly in March. The electricity price is firm, and the market is in a positive feedback loop between the cost side and the demand side. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the price opened higher, but the transmission to domestic ferroalloy energy costs is long - term, and the short - term impact is limited. As the price reaches a high level, the risk - return ratio decreases, so it is recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions [5]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 9th, the manganese ore spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, with the semi - carbonate at Tianjin Port rising by 0.5 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot price also showed a similar trend, rising by 50 - 150 yuan/ton in some regions. The sample output decreased slightly, and after the commissioning of some new production capacities, the overall supply is expected to be stable. Steel output is increasing steadily and is expected to continue to climb slowly in March. The manganese ore spot price is strong, and overseas mines' April quotes continue to rise. The short - term market is in a positive feedback loop. Similar to silicon - iron, the impact of crude oil on manganese - silicon costs is indirect, and at the current valuation level, the risk - return ratio is not high, so it is recommended to partially reduce positions and take profits [6]. - Trading strategies: For unilateral trading, the risk - return ratio is not high after the price has risen significantly, so it is recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures: The SF main contract closed at 5868, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 104. The trading volume was 404,791, with a daily increase of 246,840, and the open interest was 223,284, with a daily decrease of 24,798. The SM main contract closed at 6132, with a daily increase of 2 and a weekly increase of 50. The trading volume was 629,224, with a daily increase of 411,545, and the open interest was 396,316, with a daily decrease of 37,804 [3]. - Spot: For silicon - iron, the 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 270 and a weekly increase of 370; in Ningxia, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 270 and a weekly increase of 350; in Qinghai, it was 5800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 and a weekly increase of 450; in Jiangsu, it was 6050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 300; in Tianjin, it was 6200 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350. For manganese - silicon, the 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150; in Ningxia, it was 5900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 200; in Guangxi, it was 6050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 230; in Jiangsu, it was 6000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150; in Tianjin, it was 5950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [3]. - Basis/Spread: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract for silicon - iron was - 98, with a daily increase of 270 and a weekly increase of 266; for manganese - silicon, it was - 232, with a daily increase of 48 and a weekly increase of 100. The SF - SM spread was - 264, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly increase of 54 [3]. - Raw Materials: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the Australian lump was priced at 43 yuan/ton degree, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.7; the South African semi - carbonate was 39 yuan/ton degree, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 1; the Gabonese lump was 43.8 yuan/ton degree, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.6. For semi - coke small materials, in Shaanxi, it was 705 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; in Ningxia, it was 805 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 695 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading: Partially take profits on previous long positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - Important Information: On the 9th, the semi - carbonate at Tianjin Port was quoted at 40 yuan/ton degree, the Gabonese lump at 45 yuan/ton degree, the CML Australian lump at 46 yuan/ton degree, and the South32 Australian lump at 44 yuan/ton degree. Starting from March 10, 2026, Shagang raised the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot price of silicon - manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [11][13][15][18][20][23].