霍尔木兹海峡中断引起全球供应压力测试

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The time and degree of the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be the key factors determining the future risk premium level of oil prices. If the conflict ends in the short - term, the shipping capacity may return quickly, and the crude oil risk premium may decline significantly, but freight prices may remain high. If partial passage persists for some time, oil prices need to account for a moderate supply disruption in the Middle East, and the oil price fluctuation range may rise compared to before the conflict. The unclear outlook for the Strait of Hormuz passage will keep oil prices at an upward risk in the short - term [3][50][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transportation chokepoint - Military conflicts in the Middle East have significantly affected the crude oil market, with the passage through the Strait of Hormuz interrupted and the recovery time unknown. The number of ships passing through the strait has dropped sharply, and the US's measures to restore confidence in passage have had limited effect [11] - The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial oil transportation route. In 2025, the crude oil and petroleum products transported through it accounted for about 27% of the global total exports, with 83% of the trade volume flowing to Asian customers [16] 3.2 Export routes and adjustment space for countries along the Persian Gulf to bypass the Strait of Hormuz - Only a few countries along the Persian Gulf have pipelines with limited capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with the capacity mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [23] - Saudi Arabia has a maximum detour capacity of about 4.5 million barrels per day. After the conflict, it has started to adjust the export loading port to Yanbu Port, but there are challenges in achieving the maximum export capacity [24][25] - The pipeline utilization rate in the UAE is 75%, and the adjustment space is limited. The loading volume at Fujairah Port in early March was close to the pipeline capacity limit [28] - Other countries' bypass routes have limited capacity. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the supply loss is estimated to be 9 - 10 million barrels per day, accounting for about 10% of the global total consumption [30] 3.3 After the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil - producing countries will cut production first, and consumer countries have a certain inventory buffer 3.3.1 Depletion of on - land storage capacity will force oil - producing countries to cut production - Due to the high dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for export and limited on - land storage capacity, oil - producing countries will be forced to cut production due to the depletion of on - land storage capacity. Iraq and Kuwait have already announced production cuts [32][33] 3.3.2 Inventory distribution differences and the segmented market formed by sanctioned oil may exacerbate the damage to the demand of some buyers - The global on - land crude oil inventory is at a neutral level, but the inventory distribution is uneven. Asian countries are highly dependent on Persian Gulf crude oil imports, and there are significant differences in inventory levels among consumer countries [34][38] - Sanctioned oil, especially Russian oil, may lead to supply mismatches in the market, which may exacerbate the damage to demand [39] 3.4 Impact of the blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz on SC crude oil futures - After the Middle East conflict, the price of domestic SC crude oil futures has risen more strongly than international Brent crude oil futures. This is mainly due to the sharp increase in freight prices and the expected premium caused by the tightening supply of deliverable oil [43] - The future turning point for the premium to decline is expected to be related to the resumption of the Strait of Hormuz passage. If the blockage persists, it will be necessary to expand the deliverable oil varieties [45] 3.5 Summary and Outlook - The time and degree of the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will determine the future risk premium level of oil prices. If the conflict ends in the short - term, the shipping capacity may return quickly, and the risk premium will decline significantly. If partial passage persists, the oil price fluctuation range may rise [50] - In the short - term, the unclear outlook for the Strait of Hormuz passage will keep oil prices at an upward risk. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation and signals of the reversal of the risk premium [51]