PTA期货：地缘带动聚酯系走强

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly PTA futures research report dated March 9, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - Recently, affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have soared, driving up the prices of the industrial chain. The spot price of raw material PX has increased even more, and the PTA processing margin has been compressed. Due to the geopolitical impact, some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and the market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, causing the basis to strengthen significantly. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the upward momentum still comes from crude oil [3] - On the supply side, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton plant has reached full capacity, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton plants have restarted, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton plant has increased its load, and Yihua's 3 million - ton plant has shut down for maintenance. As of Friday, the domestic PTA load has been adjusted to 81% (+3.4%). On the demand side, two polyester plants were under maintenance last week, and multiple other polyester plants restarted, with some plants still ramping up. In March, the load is expected to remain around 80%. As the polyester load recovers seasonally, PTA will gradually reduce its inventory. The recent intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has significantly affected the industrial chain. Driven by costs, the closer to the front - end, the more obvious the increase. There is an expectation of PTA processing fee compression. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and oil price changes, which are the main variables in the recent PTA market [3] Group 3: Key Data - PTA futures (continuous): The latest price is 6,030 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 17.54% [5] - PTA output: The latest output is 1.5215 million tons, up 66,100 tons from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 4.54% [5] - Polyester chip operating rate: The latest rate is 81.35%, up 7.4 percentage points from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 10.01% [5] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate: The latest rate is 42.36%, up 30.6 percentage points from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 260.20% [5] - PXN: The latest value is 297 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of - 4.19% [5] - PTA cash - flow cost: The latest cost is 5,881 yuan/ton, up 923 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly change rate of 18.62% [5] Group 4: Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4] Group 5: Report Structure and Content PX Market - PX futures and spot market review: Includes PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, and related price differences [7][8] - PX supply situation analysis: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][15][18] PTA Market - PTA futures and spot market review: Compares PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20] - PTA supply situation analysis: Involves PTA monthly production, operating rate, and social inventory [21][23] - PTA consumption situation analysis: Includes PTA export volume, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][31] - Cost - profit analysis: Analyzes PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [33]