中原期货周报：成本上移，钢价低位上涨-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Due to the expected "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season and strong cost support from energy prices, prices are supported at low levels. Futures trends are stronger than spot, and the basis is shrinking. Steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [7][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices: The price of 20MM HRB400E rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton; the price in Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton. The price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the price in Tianjin remained unchanged at 3140 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged at 3240 yuan/ton. The price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/wet ton to 764 yuan/wet ton. The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The RB01 contract increased by 17 yuan/ton to 3141 yuan/ton; the RB05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 3088 yuan/ton; the RB10 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3115 yuan/ton. The HC01 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3263 yuan/ton; the HC05 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the HC10 contract increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3244 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The basis of Shanghai rebar (05 contract) increased by 31 yuan/ton to 102 yuan/ton; the basis of Beijing rebar (05 contract) increased by 11 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou rebar (05 contract) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 302 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the basis of Tianjin hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - Spreads: The RB05 - 10 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to -27 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton to -14 yuan/ton; the 05HC - 05RB spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The rebar futures warehouse receipt increased by 17318 tons to 16646 tons; the hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipt increased by 119968 tons to 472215 tons. The rebar mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 237.93 tons; the rebar social inventory increased by 70 tons to 637.75 tons; the rebar total inventory increased by 75 tons to 875.68 tons. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 90.08 tons; the hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 24 tons to 381.61 tons; the hot-rolled coil total inventory increased by 20 tons to 471.69 tons [7]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: The weekly production of rebar was 173.31 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 301.11 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.35%). The weekly production of rebar in blast furnaces was 161.62 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.35%), and the weekly production of rebar in electric furnaces was 11.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.50 and a year-on-year decrease of 61.39%) [13][17]. - Capacity utilization rate: The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 77.71% (a week-on-week decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 24.71% (a week-on-week increase of 144% and a year-on-year decrease of 63.08%) [21][22]. - Profit: The profit of rebar was +72 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 11 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 65 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -12 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 78 yuan/ton) [25]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar was 98.23 tons (a week-on-week increase of 21.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.42%), the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 5.66 tons (a week-on-week increase of 35.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.45%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 281.57 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%) [30]. - Inventory: The rebar inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but both mill and social inventories still increased. The rebar mill inventory was 237.93 tons (a week-on-week increase of 2.19% and a year-on-year increase of 3.88%), the rebar social inventory was 637.75 tons (a week-on-week increase of 12.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.09%), and the rebar total inventory was 875.68 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%). The hot-rolled coil inventory increase has slightly expanded, with the social inventory continuing to rise and the mill inventory falling. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.96% and a year-on-year increase of 2.33%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.78% and a year-on-year increase of 14.98%), and the hot-rolled coil total inventory was 471.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.32% and a year-on-year increase of 9.97%) [35][40]. - Downstream real estate: The transactions in the commercial housing and land markets have both declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 8.75% week-on-week and 24.76% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 36.30% week-on-week and increased by 188% year-on-year [43]. - Downstream automotive: In January 2026, automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million vehicles respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year-on-year. In January, the export of complete automobiles was 681,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 302,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100% [46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis continued to shrink, and the rebar 5 - 10 spread continued to widen. The coil - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the iron ore 5 - 9 spread continued to widen [48][53].