中原期货周报：地缘局势不确定性增加，成本支撑上移-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented. Due to environmental protection inspections at steel mills, hot metal production declined temporarily, resulting in insufficient motivation for steel mills to replenish raw material inventories. This limited the upward movement of the overall raw material market. However, towards the end of the week, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation increased the upward momentum of coking coal, coke, and iron ore, raising the cost support for raw materials [8]. - For iron ore, the supply side shows an increase in arrivals and port inventories, while the demand side experiences a short - term decline in hot metal production due to environmental protection production cuts at steel mills, with limited restocking motivation. But after the phased maintenance ends and terminal demand gradually improves, hot metal production is expected to increase, providing some restocking support for raw materials. The supply - demand situation may show a pattern of double growth, with short - term volatile and upward movement [3]. - For coking coal and coke, after the Lantern Festival, coal mines in the production areas recovered quickly, with the overall supply increasing. The weekly transactions were relatively weak, and the auction prices decreased. The short - term decline in hot metal production suppressed the steel mills' willingness to replenish raw material inventories. The inventories at coal mines increased slightly, while the coking coal inventories at downstream coking enterprises decreased. The coke inventories at ports and coking plants also increased. After the phased maintenance of steel mills in North China ends, the purchasing willingness for raw materials is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation may show a double - growth structure, with a slight improvement in the fundamental situation expected [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The first round of coke price cuts was implemented. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, such as the price of HRB400E 20MM rebar in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/wet ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen increased by 60 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The iron ore price index was 102.99, a 1.39% increase from the previous period and a 2.12% increase year - on - year. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2713.3 tons, a 28.30% increase from the previous period and a 5.35% increase year - on - year. The arrivals at 45 ports were 2609.9 tons, a 21.57% increase from the previous period and a 41.95% increase year - on - year [17]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 2.92 tons year - on - year. The ore handling volume at 45 ports was 311.08 tons, a 4.22% increase from the previous period and a 2.45% increase year - on - year. The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 32.09 days, a 1.97% increase from the previous period and a 0.06% decrease year - on - year [22]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports was 17117.86 tons, a 0.15% increase from the previous period and an 18.70% increase year - on - year. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9011.57 tons, a 0.81% decrease from the previous period and a 1.86% decrease year - on - year. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.18 days, a 0.54% increase from the previous period and a 3.90% decrease year - on - year [27]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.32%, a 20.63% increase from the previous period and a 2.07% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 26.57%, a 16.89% increase from the previous period and a 20.85% decrease year - on - year. The average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.17 tons, an 82.88% increase from the previous period and a 128.91% increase year - on - year [32]. Coking Enterprises - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period and an increase of 44 yuan/ton year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.95%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period and a 4.33% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke production was 85.89%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous period and a 1.16% decrease year - on - year [39]. Coking Coal Inventory - The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 796.17 tons, a 4.01% decrease from the previous period and a 19.61% increase year - on - year. The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 775.86 tons, a 2.12% decrease from the previous period and a 2.50% increase year - on - year. The coking coal inventory at ports was 267.7 tons, a 1.57% decrease from the previous period and a 30.69% decrease year - on - year [44]. Coke Inventory - The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 63.2 tons, a 1.62% increase from the previous period and a 27.62% decrease year - on - year. The coke inventory of steel mills was 671.26 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous period and a 1.16% decrease year - on - year. The coke inventory at ports was 203.11 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period and a 1.49% increase year - on - year [49]. Spot Price - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week and an increase of 160 yuan/ton year - on - year. The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous period and an increase of 30 yuan/ton year - on - year [52]. 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to shrink, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 continued to widen [54].