——2026年2月价格数据点评：国内物价缘何超预期上行？

Price Data Overview - In February 2026, the CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.9%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.8% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in the previous month, marking the highest level since 2020[2] - The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.4%, and was better than the market expectation of -1.2%[2] Factors Influencing CPI - The CPI increase was driven by the Spring Festival effect, expanded service demand, and rising international oil and gold prices[3] - Service prices rose by 1.1% month-on-month, significantly higher than the seasonal average of 0.8%, contributing approximately 0.54 percentage points to the CPI increase[5] - Food prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, but this was below the seasonal average increase of 3.1% due to sufficient supply of fresh vegetables[5] PPI Trends - The PPI maintained a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -0.9%[6] - International prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil rose, contributing to input inflation pressures[6] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries increased by 7.1% and 4.6% month-on-month, respectively[6] Future Outlook - The government aims to stabilize price levels and promote a reasonable recovery in consumer prices, as indicated in the 2026 work report[8] - The expected recovery in service prices and pig prices is anticipated to support CPI growth in the coming months[8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to keep oil prices elevated, potentially leading to a positive PPI in March[8]