冠通期货研究报告：原油周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate strongly in the near term, with the progress of the Middle East situation having a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations. It also emphasizes the need for risk control and suggests paying attention to the progress of the Middle East situation and the export of Middle Eastern crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, with no further production increase plan determined yet and possible future adjustments. This is mainly in response to the expected significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on April 5 [3]. - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, while the decline in refined oil inventories was relatively small, resulting in a continued increase in overall oil inventories [3]. - The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran have led to a near halt in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for several days, triggering production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. The UAE adjusted its offshore production level, Iraq's oil production dropped by 3 million barrels per day, and Kuwait stopped oil production [3]. - Trump said he would provide insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the navy would escort if necessary. Saudi Arabia is considering transferring crude oil through the east - west oil pipeline to the Yanbu Port in the Red Sea. However, due to the limited transportation capacity of Yanbu Port and the obstruction of Red Sea shipping by the Houthi armed forces, the actual effect of crude oil transportation remains to be seen [3][7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC+'s average total crude oil production in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [13]. - US crude oil production decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day in the week of February 27, and it is near the historical high [13]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has remained the same for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Central Bank Interest Rate Cut and Dollar Index - The unexpected decrease of 92,000 in US non - farm payrolls in February, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.4%, and the combined downward revision of non - farm payrolls in December last year and January this year by 69,000. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June quickly rose to about 50% [15]. 3.4 Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $4 per barrel and $6 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $26 per barrel and $29 per barrel respectively [25]. - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 21.02 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.55%, with the year - on - year increase narrowing. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.05% to 8.292 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.519 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.42%. Diesel weekly production decreased by 5.33% to 3.698 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4.199 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.30%. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel production led to a 7.40% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [30]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of March 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 27 increased by 3.475 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.305 million barrels and 2.12% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.704 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.784 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 0.429 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.596 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.564 million barrels. Overall, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was small, and the overall oil inventory continued to increase [39]. 3.6 Geopolitical Risks - Trump may increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion, consider expanding the scope of strikes, and hopes to "completely eliminate" the Iranian leadership. There is a new candidate for leadership, and he will not reach any agreement with Iran unless it surrenders. There is no plan to deploy ground troops in Iran, and the possibility of Kurdish armed forces participating in the war has been excluded. Military enterprises have agreed to quadruple the production of "high - tech" weapons, and the third US aircraft carrier strike group is expected to be deployed to the Middle East "soon" [45]. - Mojtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Trump threatened that the new Iranian Supreme Leader would not stay in power long without his approval. The Israeli Defense Minister said that the newly appointed military secretary of the Iranian Supreme Leader died recently [45]. - The Iranian President stated that Iran will never surrender unconditionally and will not attack neighboring countries unless they attack Iran first. An Iranian senior military spokesman said that Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, but ships related to Israel or the US cannot pass. The Revolutionary Guard said it hit an oil tanker flying the flag of the Marshall Islands, which is a US asset [45].