沥青周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil prices in the near future, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][19] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons, an increase of 13.0%, and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons, a decrease of 1.9% [3] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production this week, and the asphalt开工率 will increase slightly [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工率 increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [29] 3.3 Market Conditions - The asphalt 2604 contract showed a strong upward trend [4] - The asphalt/原油 ratio dropped significantly to 5.67 [12] - The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,570 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 201 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [15] 3.4 Shipping Volume - As of the week of March 6, refineries in Shandong region resumed production, and the continuous price increase promoted the downstream stocking sentiment. The shipping volume increased significantly, and the national shipping volume increased by 19.86% week - on - week to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level [3][24] 3.5 Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared with the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has not fully resumed production, and the asphalt plant inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [33] 3.6 Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There is news that the large trader Vitol China quotes a discount of $5/barrel for Venezuelan crude oil, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13/barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. In addition, due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the raw material supply from Iran will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [3] - China imports relatively little asphalt from Iran. Imports of asphalt from the Middle - East such as the UAE and Iraq account for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared with China's asphalt production [3]