冠通期货研究报告：聚烯烃周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has improved. With the expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry and the boost from the Middle East situation on energy chemicals, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastics and PP oscillated downward [5] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level; PP operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level [3][15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of March 6, PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week, and PP downstream operating rate rebounded by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but had not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [3][22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price increase was less than the futures price increase. The basis of the 05 contract slightly dropped to - 241 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [25] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventories - During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. As of Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 500 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [29] 3.6 Cost and New Capacity - Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, oil - producing countries in the Middle East were forced to cut production, and crude oil prices rose significantly, which significantly boosted polyolefins. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans for new capacity to be put into production in the first quarter [3] 3.7 Market Conditions of Agricultural Films - After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and rigid demand was released intensively. Agricultural film prices in North and East China increased, while those in South China remained stable [3]