苹果日报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of apples is strong. The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 18.11 million tons, a reduction of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season [5]. - Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the sales and delivery situation before the Spring Festival was acceptable. After the Spring Festival, from March to April is a relatively off - season for other fruits to be on the market. Recently, the sales situation of apples has improved, and the inventory reduction speed has accelerated compared with last week [5]. - As March enters the delivery month, the market has once again focused on whether the cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamental situation of the May contract for apples is indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Spot Price: The Fuji apple price index was 110.41, the next - working - day price was 110.56, with a decrease of 0.15. The prices of various apple varieties in different regions remained stable, such as the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples was 4.20, and the prices of Qixia and Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples were 4.00 and 4.10 respectively, with no change. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 8.00, and the next - working - day price was 8.06, with a decrease of 0.06 [2]. - Futures Price: For AP01, the price was 8540, the previous closing price was 8586, with a decrease of 46; for AP05, the price was 10316, the previous closing price was 10753, with a decrease of 437; for AP10, the price was 8652, the previous closing price was 8690, with a decrease of 38. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increased by 391, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 399, and AP10 - AP01 increased by 8 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 was - 540, an increase of 46 compared with the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 2316, an increase of 437; against AP10 was - 652.0, an increase of 38 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 527.53 million tons, a decrease of 25.39 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7 million tons, a reduction of 4.1% [7]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7]. - In Shandong, the apple price remained stable, the number of customers increased, and in Shaanxi, the demand for high - quality goods was good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was relatively high. The market arrivals increased slightly, sales were stable, and prices were stable [7]. - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji high - quality apples in cold storage was stable, and there were merchants packing in the cold storage, concentrated in the main producing areas. Currently, the trading volume in the cold storage was not large, and foreign trade merchants mainly purchased medium - and small - sized fruits, and the number of merchants increased compared with before. In Qixia, the mainstream quotation of 80 and above first - and second - grade paper - bagged Fuji apples was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price was stable, the number of merchants increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. Recently, the transactions were good, the supply of high - quality goods was less, and the purchasing difficulty was relatively large. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of cold - storage paper - bagged Fuji 70 and above was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, priced according to quality [7]. - Trading Logic: The apple market has a strong fundamental situation. The low inventory, good pre - and post - festival sales, and market attention during the delivery month all support the market. However, due to the significant increase in the price of the May contract, there may be profit - taking, and it is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [5]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Considering that the price of the May contract is already relatively high, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the May contract and short on the October contract [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the whole country, and the cold - storage apple delivery volume, etc. The data sources are mainly Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [10][11][13]