贵金属日报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Today, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Last week's US data was mixed, with the February non - farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, both falling short of expectations. Most Fed officials tend to focus on inflation, and the probability of a rate cut in the first half of the year in the interest rate market is still low [1] - The situation between the US and Iran is tense, with the war expanding in scale and time. Precious metals are oscillating at historical highs, and the sharp rise in crude oil brings uncertainty to global inflation and economic prospects, leading to declines in the non - ferrous and stock markets. Attention should be paid to the liquidity shock caused by recession trading [1] - In 2025, the production of platinum and palladium from major overseas mines decreased by 3% year - on - year. In 2026, due to factors such as insufficient previous capital expenditure of overseas mines, declining grades of producing mines, and high underground mining costs, the supply - side brittle constraints remain strong, and it is still advisable to go long on dips in the long term [2] - In the short term, the market trades around the Middle East situation. Coupled with the strong energy and chemical sector and the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the macro - drive of platinum and palladium weakens, and the market gradually returns to fundamental pricing, lacking directional guidance. It is advisable to look for lows with a high safety margin and participate with a small number of long orders [2] Other Key Points Fed Officials' Views - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that non - farm data cannot be ignored but does not need to be over - interpreted [2] - White House Economic Council Director Hassett believes that the average number of employed people should be focused on [2] - Cleveland Fed President Haracker said that the Fed's interest - rate policy is likely to remain unchanged for a long time, and the global dominance of the US dollar is difficult to shake [2] - Boston Fed President Collins said there is no need to change the monetary - policy stance [2] - Fed Governor Milan said the neutral interest rate is about 2.5% to 2.75% [2] Trump's Statements - Trump may increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion, consider expanding the scope of strikes, hopes to "completely eliminate" the Iranian leadership, and has a new candidate for leadership. He will not reach any agreement with Iran unless it surrenders. There is currently no plan to deploy ground troops in Iran, and the possibility of Kurdish forces participating in the war has been ruled out. He will make a final decision to end the military operation against Iran at an "appropriate time" [2]