黑色金属日报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its strong short - term trend with increased volatility due to cost - push and weak domestic demand but high exports. Iron ore is likely to have a volatile trend with marginal improvement in supply - demand. Coke and coking coal prices may be affected by geopolitical conflicts and have an upward tendency. Silicon manganese and silicon iron are likely to have a strong - side volatile trend [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. Thread demand improved slowly, production increased, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand both declined, and inventory pressure was relatively high. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and later it will gradually resume production, but poor steel mill profits limit the recovery speed. Domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high. The continuous rise in crude oil prices has increased inflation expectations, and the futures market is expected to continue its strong short - term trend [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose today, and the basis weakened recently. Global iron ore shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period and were lower than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded from a low level. Steel mills have some production profits, and iron - making water production is expected to continue to recover. Geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices provide cost support, and the market is expected to be volatile [2] Coke - Coke prices fell during the day, and the first round of price cuts was fully implemented. Coking profits are average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. Carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making water is at a low level, and steel profits are average. The futures price is at a premium, and the market's concern about energy due to geopolitical conflicts may make coke prices more likely to rise [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose to the daily limit and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts have affected market sentiment on chemical raw material supply. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1492 vehicles. Coal mine resumption is good, but spot auction transactions have decreased, and the transaction price has fallen slightly. Terminal inventory continues to decline, and total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and geopolitical conflicts may make prices more likely to rise [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose and then fell during the day. International conflicts have a positive impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects manganese ore freight and is beneficial to the cost of silicon manganese. Spot manganese ore prices have risen significantly, port inventory has decreased slightly, and mine shipments have increased. Iron - making water production has decreased significantly, silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Prices are likely to be strong - side volatile [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices rose and then fell during the day. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the price of semi - coke has decreased slightly. The main production areas are still in a loss state. Iron - making water production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and overall demand is still resilient. Weekly supply has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. Prices are likely to be strong - side volatile [7]