中原期货股指周报：地缘不确定性不容忽视，低吸滚动操作为宜-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The recent A-share market adjustment is driven by the resonance of external geopolitical shocks and market structural differentiation. The short-term direct cause is the external shock and the concentrated release of market sentiment. Although the medium - and long - term trend is mainly dominated by the domestic economic fundamentals and policy orientation, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation cannot be ignored [2]. - In the short term, the technology sector has corrected, and global stock market volatility has intensified. However, in the medium term, factors such as incremental macro - policies, accelerated A - share earnings growth, and net inflows of long - term funds into the stock market are expected to help the A - share market move forward steadily. It is recommended that investors balance their allocations between growth and value in the short term and overweight the growth style again after market sentiment stabilizes [2]. - The government work report has released positive policy signals, opening up broad development space for the capital market. With the continuous optimization and upgrading of the macro - economic structure, the development foundation of the capital market will be continuously consolidated, and the long - term potential development space is very broad [2]. - The operation in March should maintain the thinking of an oscillating market, not chasing high, not panicking when encountering sharp drops. Low - buying and rolling operations are still the main strategy [2]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Weekly Market Review: Before the festival, the four major indices mainly fluctuated. The CSI 300 fell 1.54% weekly, the SSE 50 fell 1.07% weekly, the CSI 500 fell 3.44% weekly, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.64% weekly. The average daily trading volume of the four major indices increased significantly compared with the previous week [2][8]. - Domestic Data (I) - Valuation Levels of the Four Major Indices: The document presents the PE and quantile data of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 500, but specific analysis is not provided [10][11][12]. - Domestic Data (II) - Volatility and Basis Oscillate and Decline: The basis and volatility data of the four major stock index options are shown, with the basis and volatility of the four major stock index options oscillating and declining [14][15]. - Foreign Data - Increased Fluctuations and Rising Volatility of European and American Indices: The volatility of European and American indices has increased, and the volatility has risen [18][19]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic Macroeconomy (I): Data on GDP, state - owned industrial enterprise profits, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and real estate development investment are presented, showing the development trends of different economic indicators [23][24][26]. - Domestic Macroeconomy (III): The manufacturing PMI index has weakened, and the price index has stabilized and rebounded. Import and export data and CPI data are also presented [38][41][42]. - Domestic High - Frequency Data (I): Data on high - frequency indicators such as crude steel production, rebar inventory, and excavator sales are presented [45][47][48]. - Domestic High - Frequency Data (II): Data on real - estate - related indicators such as housing construction area, new housing starts, real - estate development funds, and commercial housing sales area are presented [52][53][54]. - Foreign Macroeconomy (1): Data on the US non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, inflation, and PMI, as well as the eurozone's inflation and PMI, are presented [58][59][61]. 03. Market Sentiment - Funding Side: The short - and long - term funding costs are stable. The document shows the data of open - market operations and SHIBOR interest rates [69][70][71]. - Sentiment Side: The buying interest of domestic funds has declined after the festival. The data on margin trading balance, trading volume, and public fund data are presented [73][74][75]. This Week's Market Important Information - Brokerage Views: Galaxy Securities believes that the A - share market may show a main line in the oscillation. The short - term focuses on sectors such as oil and gas, while the medium - and long - term focuses on sectors with improved supply - demand patterns and red - chip assets. CICC believes that policy synergy will boost the A - share "stable and progressive" pattern [77][78]. - This Week's Key Events: The US CPI and the "Fed's favorite inflation indicator" are released, and China's February CPI, PPI, import - export, and financial data are announced. Earnings reports of some companies are released, and important events such as the Iranian situation, the closing of the Two Sessions in China, and the start of the South Korea - US military exercises are attracting attention [78].