尿素周报：宏观扰动加剧，尿素期价大幅波动-20260309

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Disturbances Intensify, Urea Futures Prices Fluctuate Significantly - Urea Weekly Report 2026.03.09" [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Date: 2026.03.09 [1] Group 2: Weekly Viewpoints - Supply: Urea daily production remains at a high level compared to the same period, with a weekly output of 153.79 million tons (+0.16%), including 126.49 million tons from coal - based production and 27.3 million tons from gas - based production, and an average daily output of 21.97 million tons. March sees both urea plant overhauls and restarts, and daily production is expected to stay above 220,000 tons [5][23]. - Demand: Agricultural demand is continuously released, and industrial demand is marginally increasing. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is 37.02% (up 3.61% week - on - week), and the finished product inventory is 76.64 million tons (down 2.29 million tons week - on - week). The melamine operating rate is 49.54% (-8.26%) [5][36]. - Inventory: Upstream urea enterprise inventory decreased from an increase to a decrease, with an inventory of 109.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.79 million tons. Port inventory increased slightly to 19 million tons (up 1.6 million tons week - on - week). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 7.71 days (up 0.59 days week - on - week) [33]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices are running strongly, and urea profits have increased week - on - week [5]. - Basis and Spread: The 5 - 9 spread is weak, and the 05 basis is strengthening [5]. - Overall Logic: The domestic urea spot market price is running steadily and weakly, and new order transactions are gradually weakening. In the short term, the urea futures market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, with large price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the persistence of macro - impacts and demand follow - up [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to intensified short - term macro - disturbances, operations need to be cautious [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Domestic Market: The domestic urea market price is running steadily and weakly this week [7]. - International Market: International urea prices have risen significantly [13]. Group 4: Supply Details - Production: Urea weekly output is 153.79 million tons (+0.16%), with an average daily output of 21.97 million tons [23]. - Maintenance Plan: Some enterprises have maintenance plans, such as PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical Company with a capacity of 760,000 tons scheduled to stop on March 19, 2026, and Inner Mongolia Boda Shidi Chemical Co., Ltd. and Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang Co., Ltd. planning maintenance in April [27]. Group 5: Inventory Details - Enterprise Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory is 109.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.79 million tons, due to agricultural demand and downstream industrial resumption [33]. - Port Inventory: Port inventory is 19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons [33]. - Pre - collection Days: The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 7.71 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 days [33]. Group 6: Demand Details - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is 37.02% (up 3.61% week - on - week), and the finished product inventory is 76.64 million tons (down 2.29 million tons week - on - week) [36]. - Melamine: The melamine operating rate is 49.54% (-8.26%), and the enterprise operating rate is lower than the same period [36]. Group 7: Raw Material Details - Coal: Coal prices are running strongly [38].