金货期业弘：能源继续大涨，铝价震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, following the energy price movements, and the medium - term trend depends on the Middle East situation and spot demand [3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Situation - The conflict in Iran remains intense, oil production in multiple Middle Eastern countries has declined, and G7 countries may release crude oil reserves. A - shares, stock index futures, and government bond futures in China have all fallen, while crude oil, chemicals, and shipping have all skyrocketed, with 21 varieties hitting the daily limit. Silver and gold are fluctuating, while platinum and palladium have fallen sharply. The non - ferrous metals market shows a differentiated trend, with copper, nickel, and tin falling, and aluminum, aluminum alloy, and alumina rising after reaching a high and then falling [3] Aluminum Market Data - Today, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum is 25,010, and the spot price is 25,240, with a spot premium of 230 points over the futures. This week, Shanghai aluminum has risen significantly, and the spot discount has widened to - 190 yuan. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has continued to rise significantly, the alumina inventory has increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has risen significantly, with general spot demand. The LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME spot has turned into a large premium of 47 US dollars, indicating improved overseas spot demand. This week, the RMB exchange rate has fallen slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices has dropped to 7.36, with the external market performing significantly stronger than the domestic market [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil has skyrocketed with a large amplitude, and LME aluminum has risen after reaching a high and then fallen, trading around 3,468 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum has also risen after reaching a high and then fallen, closing at 25,010, with a strong technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai aluminum has increased while the positions have remained stable, and the market sentiment shows greater divergence [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | March 3 | 6.9171 | - 160 | - 10 | 7.57 | | March 4 | 6.8945 | - 150 | 4 | 7.33 | | March 5 | 6.9184 | - 140 | 2 | 7.36 | | March 6 | 6.9074 | - 120 | - 3 | 7.52 | | March 9 | 6.9177 | - 190 | 47 | 7.36 | [5]