山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.08%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.70%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.43%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.18%. The short - term safe - haven situation indicates that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US employment unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mention discussions about the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from last week; London gold was at $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from last week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 918 lots; the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.73% from last week [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $84.70 per ounce, up 2.64% from the previous day and down 10.27% from last week; London silver was at $82.34 per ounce, down 2.23% from the previous day and down 8.49% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 21547 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07% from the previous day and down 11.80% from last week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 667 lots; the iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.88% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum was at $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; the main platinum contract on the GZFE closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium was at $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week; the main palladium contract on the GZFE closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up 0.00% from last week [8]. - US economic data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls decreased by 9.20 million, down 2.18 million from last month [8][10]. - Inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.08 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 3.00%, up 0.17 percentage points [8]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points in March 2026 is 95.3%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest rate ranges gradually increases [12].