橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险升级，能化维持强势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - On Monday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly and closing slightly higher, with the closing price rising 1.44% to 16,895 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread converged to 120 yuan/ton. As the new tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [6]. - On Monday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, strong upward movement and a sharp increase. The price reached a maximum of 2,881 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,646 yuan/ton, closing with a sharp increase of 11.99% to 2,830 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 194 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol has continued to rise, but lacks fundamental support, and it is expected that the upward trend of methanol futures prices may weaken [7]. - On Monday, the 2604 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, strong upward movement and a sharp increase. The price reached a maximum of 771.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 715.0 yuan/barrel, closing with a sharp increase of 16.99% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. With the continuous escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran, crude oil exports have stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the crude oil premium has been realized. After the negative news that the US may end the war soon and the G7 will release strategic reserve crude oil emerged, it is expected that the upward trend of oil prices may weaken and maintain a high - level volatile trend [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, with a growth rate of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, with a growth rate of 0.89%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days in this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decline of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a small month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a small week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a small month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 407, a small week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.696 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 26.463 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.564 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,150, a slight week - on - week decrease of 562 and a significant increase of 33,041 or 23.75% compared with the February average of 139,109. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 246,514, a significant week - on - week decrease of 54,198 and a significant increase of 85,120 or 52.74% compared with the February average of 161,394 [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,600 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 16,895 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,560 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | 2,830 yuan/ton | + 244 yuan/ton | - 270 yuan/ton | - 244 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 556.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.5 yuan/barrel | 771.8 yuan/barrel | + 107.0 yuan/barrel | - 214.9 yuan/barrel | - 105.4 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18] - Methanol: Includes charts such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]