原油周报：美伊战事升级，原油延续上行-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the outbreak of war between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have rapidly escalated, leading to a decline in the expected supply of Middle - Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract has risen strongly, with a cumulative increase of 36.12% to 664.8 yuan per barrel. However, with the sharp rise in oil prices and Iran not announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the upward momentum may weaken [4][12][13]. - Given the further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, the continuous rise of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the inability to transport energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East, and the pressure on Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to stop production due to full storage, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, and the crude oil premium has strengthened. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced a resumption of production increase in the second quarter, the medium - term negative factors cannot offset the short - term geopolitical positive factors. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate strongly [5][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - 1.1 Spot prices have risen significantly, and the basis discount has widened significantly: As of the week of March 6, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 84 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 579.4 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 106.6 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract closed at 664.8 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 176.4 yuan per barrel. The discount has widened significantly, and the basis is - 85.4 yuan per barrel [8][12]. - 1.2 The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and crude oil prices have continued to rise: With the outbreak of war between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased, leading to a decrease in the expected supply of Middle - Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract has risen strongly, with a cumulative increase of 36.12% to 664.8 yuan per barrel. With the sharp rise in oil prices and Iran not announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the upward momentum may weaken [4][12][13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - 2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slows down, and the supply excess expectation still exists: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. These two production cut measures have been extended many times. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a systematic and phased production increase policy. The actual production of OPEC has increased. In December 2025, the crude oil production of OPEC member countries was 28.564 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [21][22][23]. - 2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity remains at a high level: The production capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries has further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana has continued to rise, and US shale oil has shown amazing resilience. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 407, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. The daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.696 million barrels, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [35]. - 2.3 The northern hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After late February, the northern hemisphere's crude oil consumption will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventories, and the growth rate of global oil demand in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023 [37][38]. - 2.4 US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and refinery operating rates have increased slightly: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [40]. - 2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". The annual crude oil imports reached 577.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The annual production of crude oil in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The annual crude oil processing volume was 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure" [44][47][48]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Break Out in Multiple Points, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting". The core of the crisis is the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis has resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games has made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices [54][55][56]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Have Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and upward trend, and the market's long - buying power has also increased. As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 172,712 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and an increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the January average, an increase of 137.20%. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 300,712 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and an increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the January average, an increase of 63.04% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - Given the further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, the continuous rise of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the inability to transport energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East, and the pressure on Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to stop production due to full storage, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, and the crude oil premium has strengthened. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced a resumption of production increase in the second quarter, the medium - term negative factors cannot offset the short - term geopolitical positive factors. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate strongly [5][64].