Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-09 11:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating for the defense and military industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [2][24]. Core Views - The defense budget for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1,909.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.0% increase from 2025, indicating a sustained growth trend for five consecutive years [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is progressing steadily, with expectations for improved industry fundamentals in the first half of 2026, driven by a recovery in orders and performance [2]. - The report highlights the emergence of aerospace as a new pillar industry, with accelerated commercialization in the commercial aerospace sector [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military industry [2]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.21%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index decreased by 0.15%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.93% [3]. - The defense and military sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [3]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector were China Power (16.74%), Beihua Co. (16.7%), Aerospace Rainbow (14.42%), Hezhong Shizhuang (10.02%), and Aero Engine Corporation of China (7.07%) [3][9]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers included Feilihua (-17.89%), Boyun New Materials (-12.73%), Triangle Defense (-11.04%), Torch Electronics (-10.83%), and Northern Shares (-10.63%) [3][10]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 99.97, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 77.25% since January 2014 [10]. - The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to have relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [10][15].