Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The ongoing US-Iran conflict, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have led to strong oil prices, which will continue to boost the oil and fat sector. The G7's plan to release oil reserves may weaken the short - term increase in oil prices, but if the war persists, the supply side will be affected, and oil prices will remain strong [4][41]. - In the bio - diesel aspect, Indonesia's B50 policy is put on hold in 2026, and the B40 policy will continue. The long - term national will to promote bio - diesel remains unchanged. The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the competitiveness of bio - diesel and supported the demand for palm oil. Attention should be paid to the possible shift in Indonesia's bio - diesel policy. The US EPA plans to redistribute at least 50% of the exempted bio - fuel blending obligations to large refineries, which will increase the demand for US soybean oil as bio - fuel and support its price [4][41]. - High - frequency data shows that in February, both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but export demand remained weak. Under the pressure of high inventory, the de - stocking amplitude may be limited. India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high, and it recently cancelled soybean oil orders, which may increase palm oil imports. Reuters predicts that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of February may drop to 2.63 million tons. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the MPOB report [4][41]. - After the Spring Festival, domestic palm oil transactions were light. More ships arrived in February, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in February unexpectedly dropped significantly, and the employment market weakened. The G7's coordination to release oil reserves may limit the short - term rise in oil prices, but if the war continues, oil prices will be strong, providing support for the oil and fat market. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate strongly in March [4][42]. Summary by Directory I. Oil and Fat Market Review 1.1 Oil and Fat Market Trends - Since February, the domestic oil and fat sector first declined and then stabilized. By the end of February, the palm oil 05 contract fell 460 to 8,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.98%; the soybean oil 05 contract fell 56 to 8,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 195 to 9,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 202 to 4,027 ringgit/ton, a decrease of 4.78%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 7.69 to 61.77 cents/pound, an increase of 14.22%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 40.7 to 688.1 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 6.29%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 480 to 8,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.18%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 40 to 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 160 to 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% [9]. - Since February, palm oil has oscillated downward. The reasons include weak export demand, high inventory pressure, the Spring Festival leading to reduced trading and profit - taking by long - position funds, the suspension of Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy, and the reopening of the import window for Canadian rapeseed in March. In contrast, strong US soybean crushing demand and the implementation of bio - diesel policy expectations have boosted the price of US soybean oil, and the ICE rapeseed contract has strengthened due to export potential to the US as bio - fuel and increased Chinese import expectations [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) for January 2026 shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%. Exports were 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%. Production was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%. Imports were 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93% [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the latest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 19.20%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12.29%, with production in the Malay Peninsula decreasing by 10.74%, Sabah by 15.23%, Sarawak by 11.20%, and Borneo by 14.19%. - According to the data from shipping survey agency ITS, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia from February 1 - 28 was 1,149,063 tons, a 21.46% decrease compared to the 1,463,069 tons exported from January 1 - 31. According to the data from Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the palm oil export volume from February 1 - 28 was 1,025,449 tons, a 25.5% decrease compared to the 1,375,718 tons exported in January. According to the data released by shipping survey agency SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from February 1 - 28 was 852,629 tons, a 9.76% decrease compared to the 944,885 tons exported in January [22]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 460,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the production was 4.84 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons, and the five - year average was 4.89 million tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 48.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.31 million tons compared to the same period last year. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the export volume was 2.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 27.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.86 million tons. - In terms of domestic consumption, in October 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the consumption was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the five - year average was 1.84 million tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 20.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. - In terms of inventory, in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.33 million tons, compared to 2.59 million tons in the previous month and 2.5 million tons in the same period last year [28]. 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in January 2026 were 1.31 million tons, compared to 1.36 million tons in December 2025. In December 2024, the imports were 1.08 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.25 million tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons compared to the same period last year [31]. - In terms of different oils, India's palm oil imports in January 2026 were 770,000 tons, compared to 510,000 tons in the previous month and 280,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 650,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 tons. India's soybean oil imports in January 2026 were 280,000 tons, compared to 510,000 tons in the previous month and 510,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 260,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 1.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons. India's sunflower oil imports in January 2026 were 270,000 tons, compared to 350,000 tons in the previous month and 300,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 300,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 760,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [32]. 2.5 China's Oil and Fat Imports - According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2025, China's palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, compared to 330,000 tons in the previous month and 320,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 420,000 tons. In 2025, China's total palm oil imports were 2.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons. - In December 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 220,000 tons, compared to 166,000 tons in the previous month and 213,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 160,000 tons. In 2025, China's total rapeseed oil imports were 2.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons. - In December 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 65,000 tons, compared to 49,000 tons in the previous month and 47,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 166,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sunflower oil imports were 520,000 tons, compared to 1.086 million tons in the same period last year. - In total, in December 2025, the imports of the above three major oils were 565,000 tons, compared to 545,000 tons in the previous month, 580,000 tons in December 2024, and a five - year average of 746,000 tons. In 2025, the total imports of the three major oils were 5.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 540,000 tons [34][35]. 2.6 Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - According to the data from Myagric, as of the week of February 27, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 1.9705 million tons, an increase of 72,200 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 46,400 tons compared to the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 913,300 tons, a decrease of 31,600 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 28,200 tons compared to the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 372,100 tons compared to the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 270,500 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 390,300 tons compared to the same period last year [37]. III. Summary and Future Outlook - The ongoing US - Iran conflict, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected production cuts by Middle Eastern oil - producing countries have led to strong oil prices, which will continue to boost the oil and fat sector. The G7's plan to release oil reserves may weaken the short - term increase in oil prices, but if the war persists, the supply side will be affected, and oil prices will remain strong. In the bio - diesel aspect, Indonesia's B50 policy is put on hold in 2026, and the B40 policy will continue. The long - term national will to promote bio - diesel remains unchanged. The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the competitiveness of bio - diesel and supported the demand for palm oil. Attention should be paid to the possible shift in Indonesia's bio - diesel policy. The US EPA plans to redistribute at least 50% of the exempted bio - fuel blending obligations to large refineries, which will increase the demand for US soybean oil as bio - fuel and support its price [41]. - High - frequency data shows that in February, both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but export demand remained weak. Under the pressure of high inventory, the de - stocking amplitude may be limited. India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high, and it recently cancelled soybean oil orders, which may increase palm oil imports. Reuters predicts that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of February may drop to 2.63 million tons. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the MPOB report. After the Spring Festival, domestic palm oil transactions were light. More ships arrived in February, and domestic inventory increased slightly. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in February unexpectedly dropped significantly, and the employment market weakened. The G7's coordination to release oil reserves may limit the short - term rise in oil prices, but if the war continues, oil prices will be strong, providing support for the oil and fat market. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate strongly in March [42].
棕榈油月报：关注冲突持续性，棕榈油震荡偏强-20260309
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2026-03-09 11:46