豆粕月报：进口成本、估值抬升，连粕震荡偏强-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The export sales of US soybeans in the current year have slowed down. Attention should be paid to the progress of the sixth round of China - US trade consultations and Trump's visit to China. Policy uncertainty has increased, and there is a focus on whether China will increase its purchase of US soybeans. The crushing demand for US soybeans is strong, currently higher than the USDA's expected target. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a sharp increase in oil prices, which boosts the demand for vegetable oil as bio - fuel. Coupled with the positive bio - diesel policies in the US, US soybean oil has continued to strengthen, and the crushing demand is expected to be adjusted upwards. Attention should be paid to the March USDA report and the end - of - month intended planting area report. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is expected to exceed 50%, with increased export supply. Although the yield in the southern产区 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to drought, the overall harvest is still expected to be good. In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine产区 will be lower than the average, but the crop conditions are generally good, and the yield is estimated to be between 48 - 49 million tons [3][62]. - In China, the procurement of soybeans for the March shipment has basically been completed, and about 80% of the April shipment has been procured. The arrival of soybeans in March is relatively low. After the Spring Festival, due to sufficient downstream inventory, the market trading is relatively light. As the inventory is digested, it is expected that there will be a concentrated restocking boost in March, with a short - term tightening supply - demand expectation. The crushing operation rate of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is at a high level compared to the same period. The arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the distant future will also increase, resulting in an increase in medium - term supply [3][63]. - In summary, the strengthening of US soybean oil supports the rise of US soybeans, increasing the import cost. Low - valued agricultural products such as soybean meal have seen an increase in the allocation demand from macro funds, and long - position funds have entered the market. The crushing operation rate of domestic oil mills has recovered, and there may be a concentrated restocking demand downstream, with a short - term tightening supply - demand expectation. However, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans will increase significantly in April, leading to an increase in supply. Under the continuous influence of the US - Iran conflict, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate and strengthen in March [3][63]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since February, US soybeans have shown a fluctuating upward trend, and domestic soybean meal has been supported at a low level, continuing to fluctuate as a whole. At the end of February, the May contract of soybean meal rose 66 to 2,833 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China fell 40 to 3,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28%. The May contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 92.75 to 1,170 cents/bushel, an increase of 8.61%. In early February, the price of soybean meal fluctuated downward, mainly due to the significant increase in the loading of Brazilian exports, which improved the expectation of tight supply in the distant future in China. The expected good harvest in South America remained unchanged, and the overall supply was expected to be loose. The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and sufficient supply suppressed the price. From mid - to late February, soybean meal fluctuated upward. After the Spring Festival in China, the spot market trading was relatively light, mainly driven by the external market. The continuous rise of US soybeans increased the import cost, strengthening the support. In addition, market news reported that the clearance time for imported soybeans was extended, and funds and sentiment boosted the price increase. The external US soybeans generally continued to fluctuate upward. The US President stated that China would additionally purchase 8 million tons of US soybeans this year, and the export prospects were promising. Trump's visit to China at the end of March also led to market expectations of strategic purchases of US soybeans. In addition, the positive bio - diesel policy in the US boosted the crushing demand. Near the end of the month, 50% of the exemptions for small refineries would be redistributed, increasing the demand for bio - diesel fuel, which drove the sharp rise of US soybean oil. Moreover, the drought in the southern part of Brazil and the central part of Argentina in the middle and late February caused concerns and boosted the bullish sentiment [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the February USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season was 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons compared to the January estimate. The global soybean crushing demand was 368.03 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons compared to the January estimate. The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season was 125.51 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons compared to the previous month, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.55%, indicating a slightly bearish supply [11]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The February USDA report on the US soybean balance sheet had a neutral impact. In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean yield per acre remained at 53 bushels. The crushing demand was 2.57 billion bushels, and the export demand was 1.575 billion bushels, which were the same as the previous month's estimates. The ending inventory was 350 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 8.22% [15]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showed that the US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 221.564 million bushels, a 1.52% decrease compared to December. The soybean crushing volume in December 2024 was 200.383 million bushels, a 10.6% increase compared to the same period last year. From September 2025 to January 2026, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.088106 billion bushels, an 11.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The USDA's estimated growth target for the 2025/2026 season was 5.11%. At the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 190 million pounds, compared to 168.6 million pounds in the previous month and 127.4 million pounds in the same period last year. Based on the calculation results of the USDA's crushing weekly report, as of the week ending February 27, 2026, the US soybean crushing gross profit (the spread between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was $3.04 per bushel, compared to $2.74 per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $321.92 per short ton, compared to $308.37 per short ton in the previous week. The truck quote for crude soybean oil in Illinois was 60.61 cents per pound, compared to 58.98 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $11.59 per bushel, compared to $11.39 per bushel in the previous week [18]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending February 26, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 383,000 tons, compared to 811,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 36.03 million tons, with a sales progress of 84.1%, compared to 44.39 million tons in the same period last year, with an overall progress of 87.0%. China's net purchase volume in that week was 153,000 tons. China's cumulative purchase volume this year was 10.82 million tons. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, China's total purchase of US soybeans this year was 12 million tons [20]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The February USDA report showed that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons, mainly due to the suitable weather conditions during the growth and development stage of Brazilian soybeans. However, the recent low precipitation in the southern part of Brazil may lead to a decline in crop yields, and continuous attention should be paid to weather changes. The export demand remained at 114 million tons, and the crushing demand was further increased by 1 million tons to 61 million tons. The ending inventory was 37.91 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 21.13%. According to official Brazilian export data, the Brazilian soybean export volume in January 2026 was 1.88 million tons, compared to 3.38 million tons in December 2025. The Brazilian soybean export volume in January 2025 was 1.07 million tons, an increase of 810,000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the average over the past five years was 1.45 million tons. In terms of soybean exports to China, the Brazilian soybean export volume to China in January 2026 was 1.07 million tons, compared to 2.61 million tons in December 2025. The export volume to China in January 2025 was 800,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the average over the past five years was 1.05 million tons. Data from the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters showed that the estimated Brazilian soybean export volume in February was 10.69 million tons. Conab data showed that as of February 28, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 41.7%, compared to 31.9% the previous week and 48.4% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 38.4%. The AgRural agricultural consulting company said that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season was expected to reach 178 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast of 181 million tons due to the loss of yield per acre in Rio Grande do Sul due to drought. The StoneX institution lowered its forecast of Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to 177.8 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 181.6 million tons [23][29][32]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The February USDA report showed that the Argentine soybean production in the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged at 48.5 million tons, the export demand remained at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand remained at 41 million tons, the ending inventory was 22.92 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 40.60%. According to data from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the Argentine soybean export volume in November 2025 was 2.19 million tons, compared to 1.68 million tons in the previous month. The Argentine soybean export volume in November 2024 was 96,000 tons. From April to November 2025, the cumulative Argentine soybean export volume was 11.3 million tons, an increase of 6.76 million tons compared to the same period last year. The Argentine soybean meal export volume in November 2025 was 2.71 million tons, compared to 2.43 million tons in the previous month. The Argentine soybean meal export volume in November 2024 was 2.38 million tons. From April to November 2025, the cumulative Argentine soybean meal export volume was 19.95 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange reported that as of the week ending February 25, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 71%, compared to 75% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year. The weather forecast showed that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine产区 would be slightly higher than normal, and the soybean yield estimate would not change much from the previous estimate, ranging from 48 - 50 million tons [34][38][40]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, the Chinese soybean import volume in December 2025 was 8.04 million tons, of which the import volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.66 million tons, accounting for 70.4%, and the import volume of Argentine soybeans was 1.65 million tons, accounting for 20.5%. The soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons compared to the previous month. The soybean import volume in December 2024 was 7.94 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the average over the past five years was 8.94 million tons. The total Chinese soybean import volume in 2025 was 111.82 million tons, an increase of 6.79 million tons compared to the same period last year. In terms of the ship - buying rhythm, as of the week ending March 3, 2026, the procurement plan for the March shipment was 12 million tons, and 11.59 million tons had been procured, with a completion rate of 96.6%. The procurement plan for the April shipment was 11.5 million tons, and 8.59 million tons had been procured, with a completion rate of 74.7%. The procurement plan for the May shipment was 11.5 million tons, and 4.86 million tons had been procured, with a completion rate of 42.2% [46][47]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.9669 million tons, an increase of 771,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 1.8129 million tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 701,200 tons, a decrease of 141,300 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 71,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 2.9152 million tons, a decrease of 243,900 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 135,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.3 million tons, an increase of 706,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 1.6965 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending February 27, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 35,640 tons, of which the spot trading volume was 32,040 tons and the forward trading volume was 3,600 tons. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the Spring Festival was 34,860 tons. The weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 110,960 tons, compared to 125,180 tons in the week before the Spring Festival. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 588,600 tons, compared to 1.6879 million tons in the week before the Spring Festival. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.89 days, compared to 12.59 days in the previous week [49][50]. 3.3.3 Feed and Livestock Farming Situation - The total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an 8.6% increase compared to the previous year. Among them, the output of compound feed was 319.46 million tons, an 8.8% increase; the output of concentrated feed was 13.381 million tons, a 3.4% increase; and the output of additive premixed feed was 7.527 million tons, an 8.3% increase. In terms of different varieties, the output of pig feed was 166.394 million tons, a 15.6% increase; the output of egg - laying poultry feed was 32.82 million tons, a 1.4% increase; the output of meat - poultry feed was 100.977 million tons, a 3.5% increase; the output of ruminant feed was 14.758 million