焦煤日报：地缘冲突刺激大幅上涨-20260309

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market opened higher and hit the daily limit, but the limit was lifted in the afternoon. The fundamentals of coking coal are still weak, with downstream resumption of work and production falling short of the upstream mining end. The follow - up trend depends on the duration of the Israel - Iran conflict, and during the conflict, sentiment dominates the market [1] - The geopolitical situation over the weekend continued to heat up, leading to a significant rise in the energy and chemical sector, and the sentiment was transmitted to the coal market. Coupled with the Two Sessions, the market is optimistic about the subsequent policy fermentation and expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with the operating load increased by 20% this period. After the holiday, with the resumption of mines, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce inventory, with steel mills reducing inventory by 168,200 tons and independent coking enterprises by about 494,100 tons. The steel mill operating load declined, and the post - holiday resumption was less than expected, with the current operating rate at 77.71%. Steel mills are mainly digesting their own inventory, with low overall demand for the upstream. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,168 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From February 27 to March 5, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4] Demand Data - From March 1 to March 5, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5]