螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with a bullish bias" for the rebar market [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of rebar is oscillating with a bullish bias. The price has risen nearly 100 yuan in the past 9 trading days due to the departure of short - position funds. The future price trend depends on the recovery of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If demand recovers beyond expectations, the price may rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will suppress the price [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 57,901 lots on Monday. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, reaching 1,576,431 lots. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,085, and faced pressure near the 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,110. The price opened slightly higher and oscillated strongly on Friday night. The position has been continuously reduced in the past 9 trading days, and the price has risen nearly 100 yuan, mainly due to the departure of short - position funds [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures are at a discount of 101 yuan/ton to the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons from the previous week, indicating that the production enthusiasm of steel mills has recovered [3] - Demand: In the week of March 5, 2026, the current apparent demand was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by post - holiday resumption of work. However, the overall demand is still at a low level in the same period of history, indicating that the demand recovery is less than expected. The downward trend of the real estate industry has not been reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - Inventory: Social inventory is 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%), with a significant inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory is 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%), with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory is 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), and the overall inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [4] - Macroeconomic situation: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received short - term support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [5] - Bearish factors: Continued weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and a short - biased capital position structure [5] Short - Term View Summary - The 05 rebar contract has seen a price increase of nearly 100 yuan in the past 9 trading days with a reduction in positions. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up energy costs, leading to the departure of a large number of short - position holders. The support level is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the resistance level is near the intraday high. Currently, the production restriction policy during the two sessions and the sharp rise in the chemical industry have enhanced cost support. For the demand side, real estate policies are mainly for inventory reduction and stability, with no more than expected policies, and the demand growth space is limited, which restricts the upside to a certain extent. In the future, attention should be paid to the apparent demand data to see if it can continue to pick up, so as to drive inventory de - stocking. The core of the medium - term trend is still the recovery intensity of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure [5]