油粕日报：油粕分化-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil and meal markets showed a differentiated trend. The sharp rise in crude oil drove up the price of U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean oil couldn't fully absorb the crushing profit, so soybean meal took on the cost increase and once hit the daily limit. The expected state reserve release at the end of the month will lead to inventory reduction in the next two weeks, with stronger spot prices and a significantly stronger domestic futures market than the overseas market. However, due to the large increase, the spot basis has significantly shrunk, and those with inventory in the spot market can consider appropriate hedging to lock in profits [1]. - The sharp rise in the oils and fats sector was mainly driven by the re - pricing of the uncertainty of Middle East supply security in the energy market rather than supply - demand factors. In the short term, crude oil market volatility will remain high, and geopolitical factors will dominate the next direction. Before there is an obvious signal of cease - fire in the Middle East conflict, the market should be treated as relatively strong [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Consulting firms AgroConsult and AgResource Brasil predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 183.1 million tons and 182.43 million tons respectively, higher than previous expectations, mainly due to good harvests in some states despite a decline in Rio Grande do Sul due to drought and high - temperature weather [1]. - As of the week of March 4, rainfall significantly improved the soybean moisture conditions in some areas of Argentina, supporting crop growth and relieving the previous drought pressure. Currently, 74% of soybean crops are rated normal to good (same as a week ago, compared with 80% last year), and 67% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions (lower than 69% a week ago and 79% last year) [1]. Oils and Fats - Statistics Canada reported that the intended planting area of rapeseed in Canada in 2026 would reach 21.8 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. But considering factors such as the sharp rise in rapeseed prices, the surge in fertilizer costs, and changes in the international trade environment, farmers are re - evaluating the planting structure, and the actual rapeseed planting area may be higher than the statistical forecast [2].