2026年2月通胀数据点评：春节推升通胀高点，反内卷效应延续

Inflation Overview - In February 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly three years[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.8% year-on-year, the highest since 2019, indicating improved domestic demand[4] Price Changes - Non-food prices increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with service prices up by 1.6%, driven by significant price hikes in travel-related services such as airfares (up 29.1%) and hotel accommodations (up 5.4%) during the Spring Festival[2] - Food prices shifted from a 0.7% decline in January to a 1.7% increase in February, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI rise[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Prices in upstream industries and emerging sectors showed recovery, with significant increases in non-ferrous metal mining (7.1%) and oil extraction (5.1%)[4] Future Outlook - A seasonal adjustment is expected in March, with CPI likely to experience a temporary decline due to the absence of holiday consumption support[5] - External inflation risks may arise from rising international oil prices, which could impact domestic CPI and PPI trends[5]