软商品日报：震荡上扬-20260309

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a stage of improving supply and demand, with an obvious trend of fluctuating upward, despite the lack of a strong bull - market driver [1]. - The international sugar market has emerging positive factors, but the upward movement of sugar futures prices is restricted. The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of last Friday, the basis price of machine - picked cotton 3129B with less than 2.6% impurity in the northern Xinjiang warehouses was around 1300 - 1450 yuan/ton, and the basis price of the same - grade resources in southern Xinjiang's Aksu and other regions was about 20 - 30 yuan/ton lower. The delivery price in northern Xinjiang was mostly maintained at around 16550 - 16750 yuan/ton during the week [1]. - The operating rate of textile enterprises has recovered, but the new orders of downstream textile enterprises are average. The price of raw cotton has corrected, and textile enterprises purchase in appropriate amounts according to demand, with better market transactions than the week before last [1]. - News of Sino - US contact is released, which is beneficial to economic and trade negotiations and provides a certain framework for the subsequent demand for cotton [1]. Sugar - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, India's estimated output is lowered, Thailand's sugar production is lower than the initial estimate of the season, and in Brazil, the ethanol - to - sugar premium and the possibility of a lower sugar - making ratio in the new season make positive factors in the international sugar market emerge. However, the futures price is suppressed by a large number of speculative short positions and its upward movement is blocked [2]. - A significant increase in crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil, indirectly benefiting the price of raw sugar [2]. - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4003 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5085 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar is 1527 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 445 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, the price difference between the domestic and international markets continues to widen after the domestic market strengthens. Rising crude oil prices are conducive to Brazil increasing ethanol output, changing the "sugar - ethanol ratio" and reducing sugar output [2].