铁矿日报：供需两端存回升预期-20260309

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a short - term rebound but with limited upside. The pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term, and the recovery of iron - water production is delayed. The market is still relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the upper integer mark [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Sections Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to strengthen, closing at 784.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton or +1.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 412,000 lots, the open interest was 473,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.168 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 770, and a bullish rebound is expected in the near term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder rose 13 to 777, Super Special powder rose 13 to 661, and the swap main contract was 103.2 (+1.65) US dollars/ton. Both swaps and spot prices continued to strengthen [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 809.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24.8 yuan/ton, and the basis widened slightly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 26.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Iron ore shipments remained at a high level, and arrivals were still low but expected to recover later. However, the impact of weather on the shipment and arrival rhythm needs to be monitored. The total inventory pressure has eased under the background of low arrivals, but there is still pressure to accumulate inventory due to high - level supply [2] - Demand: The iron - water production decreased significantly. The production resumption rhythm was affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, but it is likely to recover seasonally later. The key lies in the support of peak - season demand [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The 2026 Government Work Report has five highlights, including a slight downward shift in the economic growth target, stable fiscal and monetary policies, expansion of domestic demand as a key task, emphasis on the "dual - carbon" goal, and continuous promotion of the "anti - involution" work. Relevant equity and commodity assets in related fields are worthy of attention [3] - Overseas: Overseas consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. The rise in the Middle East situation has pushed up energy and risk - aversion premiums. The overall situation is "growth without stalling, rising policy and geopolitical risks" [3] Viewpoint Summary - In general, the iron ore market has short - term pressure from high shipments and high inventories, and the iron - water production has decreased with a delayed resumption rhythm. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, it is still relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the upper integer mark [4]