热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the hot-rolled coil futures contract showed a significant reduction in positions and an oscillating upward trend. The short-term support is near the 30-day moving average, and the pressure is near the intraday high. The current hot-rolled coil futures are in a stage of game between "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation, and the downside space is limited. The focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry, order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side output [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday had a reduction of 106,185 lots in positions, with a trading volume of 784,875 lots. It significantly increased trading volume compared to the previous trading day. In the short - term, it broke through the 5 - day moving average near 3228, and the medium - term 30 - day moving average was at 3252 and the 60 - day moving average was at 3267. Affected by the sharp rise in the chemical industry, it continued the upward - biased trend [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,260 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The spot - futures basis was - 10 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous week, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons compared to the previous week, showing that post - holiday demand recovery fell short of expectations. In absolute terms, it was still at a medium - to - low level in the same period of history, and the weak reality pattern remained unchanged. The actual start - up of downstream manufacturing and automobile terminals still needed to be verified [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous week. The overall inventory was still increasing, and the inventory level in 2026 was higher than in previous years, with inventory pressure still existing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]