中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, short - term macro - sentiment disturbances lead to a sharp rise in futures prices, and the market has high volatility risks. Supply is expected to remain at a high level, and demand has rebounded. Attention should be paid to macro - impacts and cost - side price changes [6]. - For glass, under short - term macro - sentiment disturbances, futures prices show a relatively strong trend, but the high inventory in the mid - upstream may limit price increases. Attention should be paid to energy prices and glass production line changes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The plant operating rate is 86.77% (a 1.73% increase from the previous week), with the ammonia - soda process at 90.45% (unchanged from the previous week) and the combined - alkali process at 76.32% (a 0.02% increase). Weekly production is 80.70 tons (a 1.60 - ton increase), with light - soda production at 34.47 tons (a 0.68 - ton increase) and heavy - soda production at 43.23 tons (a 0.92 - ton increase) [6]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash is 75.42 tons (a 12.27 - ton increase), with light - soda apparent demand at 34.59 tons (a 6.65 - ton increase) and heavy - soda apparent demand at 40.83 tons (a 6.12 - ton increase) [6]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory is 194.72 tons (a 1.77 - ton increase), light - soda inventory is 102.73 tons (a 1.44 - ton increase), and heavy - soda inventory is 91.99 tons (a 0.33 - ton increase) [6]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 14.85 tons, unchanged from February 26. There are 295 glass production lines in total, with 210 in production and 85 cold - repaired and shut down. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87,760 tons per day, a 0.90% decrease from the previous week and a 1.08% increase year - on - year [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, a 3.629 - million - weight - box increase from the previous week, a 4.77% increase from the previous week and a 14.51% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period [8]. - Demand: As of January 30, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.35 days, a 31.9% decrease from the previous week and a 323.3% increase year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - As of March 5, 2026, the market price of heavy soda in the central China region is 1,230 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda is 1,130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda is 1,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda is 1,200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 50 yuan/ton [14]. - As of March 5, 2026, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is - 15 yuan/ton (a 25 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week); the basis of glass in the Shahe area is - 99 yuan/ton (a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week) [17]. - As of March 5, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of soda ash is - 56 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week); the 5 - 9 spread of glass is - 109 yuan/ton (a 12 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 170 yuan/ton (a 37 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week) [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental - Supply - The weekly production of soda ash is 80.70 tons (a 1.60 - ton increase), with light - soda production at 34.47 tons (a 0.68 - ton increase) and heavy - soda production at 43.23 tons (a 0.92 - ton increase). Due to limited changes in recent plant overhauls, soda ash supply is expected to remain at a high level [28]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.77%, a 1.73% increase from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate is 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the combined - alkali capacity utilization rate is 76.32%, a 0.02% increase from the previous week [37]. 3.2.3 Fundamental - Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, soda ash enterprise inventory is 194.72 tons (a 1.77 - ton increase), light - soda inventory is 102.73 tons (a 1.44 - ton increase), and heavy - soda inventory is 91.99 tons (a 0.33 - ton increase) [41]. 3.2.4 Fundamental - Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash is 75.42 tons, a 12.77 - ton increase from the previous week. The apparent demand for light soda is 34.59 tons, a 6.65 - ton increase from the previous week, and the apparent demand for heavy soda is 40.83 tons, a 6.12 - ton increase from the previous week. The apparent demand for both light and heavy soda has increased [45]. - There are 295 domestic glass production lines in total, with 210 in production and 85 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass is 14.85 tons, unchanged from February 26. This week, the national float glass output is 1.0397 million tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week and a 5.24% decrease year - on - year. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87,760 tons per day, a 0.90% decrease from the previous week and a 1.08% increase year - on - year [47]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, a 3.629 - million - weight - box increase from the previous week, a 4.77% increase from the previous week and a 14.51% increase year - on - year. As of January 30, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.35 days, a 31.9% decrease from the previous week and a 323.3% increase year - on - year [52]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - Glass Cost and Profit - As of March 5, 2026, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China is - 82.65 yuan/ton, a 7.5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - alkali process soda ash in China is - 2.50 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week [55].