——2026年2月通胀数据解读：春节扰动推升物价

Inflation Overview - In February, the CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the highest in nearly three years, and up 1.0% month-on-month, marking a two-year peak[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 1.8% year-on-year, driven by strong demand during the Spring Festival[2] - Food prices turned from decline to an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase[14] PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for the third consecutive month, while month-on-month it rose by 0.4%, marking five months of continuous increase[18] - Production material prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, serving as the main driver for the PPI's month-on-month rise[3] - Significant increases in upstream resource prices were noted, with non-ferrous mining and oil extraction prices rising by 7.1% and 5.1% respectively[3] Market Dynamics - The strong performance of the PPI is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international commodity prices and robust demand for AI computing power, which boosted the communication and electronics sectors[3] - The overall price structure shows a moderate bottoming out with structural differentiation, indicating a transition from policy stimulus to endogenous recovery[8] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include changes in government policy, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unforeseen extreme weather impacts on prices[4]